Weekly Market Movers — Key Highlights
  • Rising U.S.-Iran tensions pushed oil to 2025 highs.
  • Redemption halt at Blue Owl Capital triggered a selloff in private credit.
  • OpenAI neared a $100 billion funding round—boosting its valuation past $850 billion—while Meta and Nvidia entered a long-term AI infrastructure partnership.
  • Inflation cooled significantly across major economies, with Japan falling below its 2% target (1.5%) 
  • While 80% of S&P 500 companies beat estimates, Walmart and Palo Alto Networks saw shares slip due to cautious forward guidance.
  • Federal Reserve minutes revealed internal debate over the timing of rate cuts, with members differing over prioritizing labor-market resilience vs sustained disinflation.

Global equity markets experienced volatility as the MSCI All Country World Index rose despite U.S.-Iran tensions and the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance. International inflation rates declined in Japan, the UK, and Canada, while the U.S. housing market and manufacturing showed varied performance ahead of PCE inflation data. Corporate news included OpenAI’s $100 billion funding round and earnings reports from Deere & Co. and Palo Alto Networks, contrasting with challenges for Walmart and private credit firms like Blue Owl Capital.

In global geopolitics, President Trump indicated that the Iran-U.S. standoff could possibly escalate into an armed conflict, even as nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran continue. Earlier in the week the two countries had agreed on the guidelines for the continued talks between the two countries. The U.S. led Ukraine-Russia talks in Geneva were characterized as ‘difficult’ by Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky and Russia’s chief negotiator Vladimir Medinsky.

Global Updates
  • The MSCI All Country World Index rose over the week despite a short decline on Thursday. Rising U.S. Iran tensions and the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve (Fed) weighed on global markets. The selloff in private credit following Blue Owl Capital halt on redemptions also adversely impacted global markets. The Fed’s stance also raised investor concerns regarding the PCE inflation report due on Friday. China, Hong Kong and Taiwan’s markets remained closed through the week for the Lunar New Year Holiday, while Korean markets reopened mid-week. 
  • The headline inflation rate in Japan declined to 1.5% in January, below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target rate for the first time since March 2022. The decline was driven by falling food, meat and petroleum product prices.
  • UK inflation eased to 3% in January, down from 3.4% in December, driven by lower food, fuel and airfare prices. The decline in inflation has raised expectations of a potential rate cut in March. U.K. retail sales rose by 1.8% month-over-month and 4.5% annually in January due to increased economic activity. The public sector also posted a surplus of $40.8 billion in January. 
  • Canada’s annual inflation rate declined to 2.3% in January, from 2.4% in December, due to declining gasoline prices. 
  • South Korea’s Kospi index crossed the 5,800 market this week, driven by an ally in chip and defense stocks.
  • Prime Minister Carney announced Canada’s first defence industrial strategy, which plans to increase spending and investment in domestic defense industries, an initiative expected to generate approximately 125,000 jobs and raise annual revenues of the industry to $40 billion.
  • Anglo American reported adjusted core earnings of $6.4 billion in 2025, driven by strong performance in copper and premium iron ore, along with $1.8 billion in cost savings. However, the company also posted a $3.7 billion net loss, primarily due to a $2.3 billion pre-tax impairment on its De Beers diamond unit amid difficult market conditions.
  • German chemical company Bayer’s stock price dragged, following a $7.25 billion settlement proposal in Roundup lawsuit. 
  • The escalating tensions between the United States and Iran have driven oil prices to their highest levels since August, 2025. Earlier this week, Iran temporarily closed portions of the Strait of Hormuz for military exercises, reigniting concerns about potential disruptions to global energy markets, given that more than 30% of the world’s crude oil shipments pass through the strait.
U.S. Equity
  • U.S. equity markets rallied early in the holiday shortened trading week, recovering from the AI driven disruptions in the previous week. However, markets declined on Thursday, leading to a softer rise in broad market indices over the week. The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average index edged lower over the week. Growing geopolitical tensions and the decline in Amazon shares dragged down market performance. 
  • With 75% of S&P 500 companies having reported earnings and revenue outcomes from the previous quarter, 80% have exceeded their consensus earnings‑per‑share estimates, and 60% have issued higher forward guidance.
  • New orders for US-manufactured durable goods fell by a less-than-expected 1.4% in December 2025, from the 5.4% growth in November.
  • Housing starts in the U.S. rose by 6.2% in December 2025 to 1.40 million units exceeding previous estimates. 
  • Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index and the fourth‑quarter U.S. GDP is scheduled for release on Friday. Consensus estimations indicate headline PCE to rise 2.8% year over year and core PCE to increase 3%.
  • The minutes from the Federal Reserve’s January meeting pointed to a growing divergence within the Committee over the appropriate policy trajectory. A subset of policymakers underscored the importance of preserving labor‑market resilience. Conversely, others advocated maintaining a cautious stance, arguing that clearer and more sustained evidence of disinflation is essential for considering any policy adjustments. U.S. inflation continues to exceed the central bank’s 2% target rate.
  • Walmart shares slipped after the retailer’s full‑year earnings guidance of adjusted EPS in the $2.75 to $2.85 range fell short of expectations, overshadowing its stronger‑than‑anticipated fourth‑quarter results. Walmart reported $0.74 adjusted EPS in the fiscal fourth quarter on a revenue of $190.66 billion. Walmart’s annual revenue of $713.2 billion for the recent fiscal year fell short of Amazon’s annual revenue of $716.9 billion for the first time.
  • Alternative asset manager Blue Owl Capital announced tightening in investor liquidity and the sale of $1.4 billion in loans. Shares of Blue Owl Capital, Blackstone and Apollo Global Management declined following the announcement. 
  • OpenAI has reportedly finalized a $100B deal in its latest funding round, raising the company’s valuation above $850 billion.
  • Farm and construction equipment manufacturing company Deere & Co. reported 13% annual growth in its fiscal first quarter revenue to $9.61 billion and an EPS of $2.42 surpassing expectations. The company raised its full year net income guidance to the $4.5 billion and $5 billion range.
  •  Palo Alto Networks posted a higher-than-expected adjusted EPS of $1.03 on 15% annual growth in its fiscal second quarter revenue to $2.59 billion. The company’s stock price, however, declined after it lowered its adjusted earnings guidance for the full fiscal year to the $3.65 to $3.70 range. 
  • President Trump announced plans for Japan to invest USD 36 billion in U.S. energy and industrial projects in the first phase of a broader USD 550 billion investment commitment through 2029.
  • Berkshire Hathaway trimmed its Amazon holdings by more than 75% during the fourth quarter, according to its filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Meta and Nvidia announced a long‑term partnership focused on AI infrastructure, covering the supply of CPUs, GPUs, and networking technologies to Meta.
Fixed Income
  • The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index edged lower over the week. 
  • The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield edged up to 4.075% and the yield on the 2-year note rose to 3.47% over the week.
  • The U.S. Dollar Index rose to 97.93 over the week.

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