Rising tensions and volatile times ahead
Global markets were rattled by renewed geopolitical tensions, trade threats, and mixed economic signals. Equities softened, safe-haven assets surged, and policy uncertainty continued to weigh on investor sentiment. Meanwhile, select corporate earnings and strategic deals shaped U.S. equity movements, while fixed income markets strengthened. Investors turned from risk to traditional safe-haven assets, with gold and silver surging to fresh records as the Swiss franc gained.
Russia is set to participate in security discussions with the United States and Ukraine in Abu Dhabi today. Following a late-night meeting between President Vladimir Putin and a delegation of three U.S. envoys, Moscow cautioned that any lasting peace agreement would remain unattainable unless territorial disputes are addressed. The U.S. is repositioning key military assets, including an aircraft carrier and fighter jets, across the Middle East amid escalating tensions with Iran following mass casualties during recent protests in the country. The situation is further complicated by mixed signals from President Trump, while Israel prepares for the possibility of an unexpected conflict.
Weekly Market Movers — Key Highlights
- Global equities fell sharply after President Trump threatened 10% tariffs on several European countries in his pursuit of Greenland, triggering a flight to safety and record highs in gold and silver.
- Middle East tensions escalated, with the U.S. redeploying major military assets and renewed threats against Iran lifting oil prices.
- Intel plunged after forecasting weaker-than-expected revenue and struggling to meet surging AI server-chip demand.
- Volkswagen shares jumped as the automaker reported stronger-than-expected 2025 automotive cash flow.
- Czechoslovak Group surged 32% on debut after a record-breaking defense IPO, valuing the firm at over $29B.
Global Updates
- The MSCI All Country World Index fell following President Trump’s threat to hit several European countries with 10% tariffs to pressure Denmark into selling Greenland.
- Euro zone consumer confidence improved in January, rising 0.8 points from December.
- Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Index surged to 59.6 in January, the highest level since August 2021, reflecting improved expectations for Germany’s economic outlook.
- UK retail sales rose unexpectedly in December, driven by strong online demand, marking the first monthly increase since September and signaling momentum after Reeves’ budget.
- Natural gas prices surged due to rising demand driven by an unexpected Arctic cold front extending till Florida.
- China’s government has permitted companies to purchase Nvidia’s H20 chips.
- Japan’s annual inflation rate eased to 2.1% in December 2025, down from 2.9% November.
- Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney criticized President Trump’s global strategy and urged middle powers to unite in response to a weakening international order in his speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos.
- Bank of Japan maintained Hawkish Inflation Outlook, Citing Yen Weakness and Signalling Further Rate Hikes Amid Heightened Political Sensitivity.
- Oil prices rebounded after President Trump renewed threats against Iran, heightening fears of potential military action and possible disruptions to Middle East supply routes.
- Volkswagen shares surged after the automaker reported stronger‑than‑expected 2025 net cash flow in its automotive division.
- Czechoslovak Group’s shares surged up to 32% on debut after a record defence IPO, valuing the firm at about $29.3 billion and raising roughly $4.45 billion.
- Shell is considering selling its Vaca Muerta shale assets in Argentina, exploring partial or full divestment as it evaluates interest from buyers amid volatile valuations.
U.S. Equity
- U.S. stocks weakened this week as disappointing corporate earnings combined with fallout from President Trump’s Greenland push intensified tensions with Europe and revived trade‑war concerns.
- President Trump withdrew his invitation for Canada to join his Board of Peace initiative, halting its planned participation in the conflict‑resolution effort.
- President Trump filed a $5 billion lawsuit against JPMorgan Chase and CEO Jamie Dimon, alleging politically motivated account closures amounted to debanking.
- President Trump stated that he has concluded interviews for the position of Federal Reserve chair and affirmed that he has already identified his preferred candidate.
- U.S. control over Venezuela’s oil exports has trapped shipments intended for Chinese debt repayment.
- U.S.-Indonesia trade talks could quadruple annual bilateral commerce to about $160 billion, Indonesia’s business chamber says, with an agreement possibly finalized next month. The US is actively seeking to re-negotiate its defense agreement with Denmark to remove the limits on its military presence in Greenland.
- Intel shares plunged after the company projected weaker‑than‑expected quarterly revenue and profit, citing difficulty meeting AI server‑chip demand.
- U.S. and Taiwan finalized a trade deal under which Taiwanese firms will invest $250 billion to expand U.S. semiconductor, energy, and AI production.
- TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanné said he expects the EU to soften future sustainable aviation fuel mandates, mirroring its retreat from the 2035 combustion‑engine ban.
- Qatar Investment Authority and Goldman Sachs signed a preliminary pact to deepen their partnership, outlining plans for $25 billion in Goldman‑managed vehicles and co‑investment ventures.
- Netflix shares declined as investors scrutinized the company’s fourth‑quarter earnings alongside reports of its bid to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery.
- United Airlines stock rallied after the company’s fourth‑quarter earnings and guidance beat expectations.
- A U.S. government shutdown is looming as lawmakers approach the January 30 deadline, with Congress required to pass at least six funding bills to avert a partial closure.
Fixed Income
- The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index advanced over the week.
- The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose up to 4.251% and the yield on the 2-year note rose to 3.614% over the week.
- The U.S. Dollar Index fell to 98.33 over the week.
HCM-030624-063.GWS
