Weekly Market Movers — Key Highlights
  • Geopolitical tensions weighed on markets, with U.S.–Iran conflict escalations driving equity declines and fueling a sharp rise in energy-linked inflation concerns.
  • Labor indicators remained mixed, as jobless claims held steady but labor-cost pressures intensified ahead of Friday’s payroll data release.
  • Oil markets saw renewed volatility despite early U.S. assurances on Strait of Hormuz security, as additional Iranian attacks pushed prices higher.
  • Corporate news was market-moving, with Berkshire Hathaway rallying on its first share-repurchase announcement since 2024 and CEO Greg Abel’s $15 million stock purchase.
  • AI sector developments remained in focus, as OpenAI clarified its Pentagon-related software role and Anthropic projected its 2026 revenue to double to roughly $20 billion.

Global and U.S. equities ended the week lower as escalating U.S.–Iran tensions and rising energy prices weighed on sentiment, though the Nasdaq eked out gains on brief hopes of potential negotiations. Steady jobless claims contrasted with rising labor costs, keeping focus on upcoming payroll data. Oil volatility persisted despite early U.S. assurances on shipping security, as renewed Iranian attacks revived inflation concerns. Corporate developments included Berkshire Hathaway’s buyback‑driven rally, OpenAI’s clarification on its Pentagon role, and Anthropic’s projected revenue surge to $20 billion in 2026.

In global geopolitics, Israel-U.S.-Iran armed conflict commenced with the bombing of Iran and death of state and military leaders including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iran has responded with drone and missile attacks on American infrastructure in the region, Israel and neighboring countries, isolating Iran from support in the region. Ukraine and Russia exchanged 200 prisoners of war, despite continued conflict between the countries. The International Atomic Energy Agency proposal criticizing attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, was opposed by the U.S. and Russia. 

Energy markets reacted even more abruptly. Crude oil and natural gas prices soared, driven by fears surrounding the Strait of Hormuz—a vital maritime corridor that transports nearly one‑fifth of the world’s oil and a significant share of LNG shipments. With mounting tensions and heightened security risks, commercial tankers began avoiding the passage, even without a formal blockade, as shipowners and insurers sought to limit exposure. This added a new layer of volatility to inflation expectations and global economic stability.

Global Updates
  • The MSCI All Country World Index fell sharply as escalating geopolitical tensions, surging oil prices, and currency volatility triggered broad risk aversion, prompting investors to pull back from equities and other risk‑sensitive assets. 
  • The S&P Global final Japan Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) edged up to 53.8 in February from 53.7 in January.
  • Maersk, one of the world’s largest container carriers, announced that it has temporarily halted two routes connecting the Middle East with Asia and Europe as the Iran conflict disrupts supply chains.
  • France’s Transport Minister Philippe Tabarot said that about 50 French vessels are stranded in the Persian Gulf and eight more in the Red Sea, as Paris seeks partners to safeguard regional shipping lanes.
  • Australia has formally raised concerns with China after what it described as an “unsafe and unprofessional” interaction between their military helicopters, the Department of Defence said on Friday.
  • Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda announced they will continue raising rates if its outlook holds but cautioned that Middle East tensions could weigh on global growth, warranting vigilance.
  • President Volodymyr Zelenskiy pledged support to the U.S. after receiving a request for assistance in countering Iranian drones operating in the Middle East.
  • Australia and Canada signed new critical‑minerals agreements, as Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney addressed Australia’s parliament, underscoring closer cooperation between the two “middle powers.”
  • China announced a 7% increase in defence spending for 2026—its slowest pace in five years but still exceeding economic growth and regional averages amid rising tensions, including over Taiwan.
U.S. Equity
  • U.S. equity markets declined over the week, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices posting losses. The U.S.-Israel Iran bombing of Iran, followed by Iranian attacks on the countries in the middle east, weighed on investor optimism. However, the Nasdaq index closed the week slightly higher due to a mid-week rally driven by hopes for an early conclusion to the U.S.-Iran war.
  • U.S. jobless claims for the week ended Feb. 28 was 213,000 unchanged from the previous week’s data, indicating a decline in layoffs in February. However, nonfarm labor costs rose by a higher-than-expected 2.8% in the fourth quarter of 2025. Markets keenly await the nonfarm payrolls data, scheduled to be released on Friday. 
  • The ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.6% in February from 52.4% in January, indicating the second consecutive month of expansion. The expansion was driven by new orders and domestic demand.  The ISM Services PMI for the U.S. rose to 56.1% in February from 53.8 in January, indicating an expansion due to increasing new orders and business activity. 
  • OpenAI CEO Sam Altman clarified that, in its role as a software provider to the U.S. Department of Defense, the company is not responsible for determining the end‑use applications of its AI systems. 
  • U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has indicated that the 15% global tariff could go into effect this week. He also reiterated the Trump government’s intention to protect the global oil trade from Iranian attacks. 
  • Berkshire Hathaway stock price rallied, after announcing the resumption of repurchases of its own shares, for the first time since 2024. CEO Greg Abel has also reportedly purchased $15 million in company stock.
  • AI developer Anthropic is projected to double its annual revenue in 2026, based on its current annualized revenue run rate, reaching approximately $20 billion.
  • Payments company Block announced layoffs of over 4,000 positions, 40% in its workforce—as it accelerates the use of AI to replace manual processes and streamline operations.
Fixed Income
  • The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index edged lower over the week. 
  • The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.14% and the yield on the 2-year note rose to 3.58% over the week following the events in the U.S.-Israel-Iran war and rising labour costs.
  • The U.S. Dollar Index rose to 99.07 over the week due to safe haven demand due to the growing conflict in the middle-east.

HCM-030624-063.GWS