Volatility returns as geopolitical tensions re-emerge globally
Weekly Market Movers — Key Highlights
- Global stocks swung sharply amid elevated tech valuations and a muted response to Nvidia’s earnings.
- Grifols projects 25%+ earnings growth in 2026 and continues debt‑reduction efforts.
- Ocado to cut 1,000 jobs and slash tech/support costs by £150M.
- Pakistan conducted strikes in Afghanistan, with leadership calling the conflict “open war.”
- Russia–Ukraine energy tensions escalated after Druzhba pipeline disruptions.
- U.S. Q4 GDP grew 1.4%, the slowest since early 2025.
- Nvidia posted record Q4 revenue of $68.1B, up 73% YoY.
- Paramount raised its takeover bid to $31/share, intensifying competition with Netflix.
Global markets were volatile as high-tech valuations, mixed earnings reactions, and geopolitical tensions pressured sentiment. Equities swung between gains and losses while inflation eased in parts of Europe. Corporate updates were active across regions, with major investments announced in AI, energy, and industrials. Geopolitical stress intensified, including Pakistan–Taliban clashes and renewed Russia–Ukraine energy disputes, adding to overall caution. Russia accused Ukraine of threatening regional energy security by halting oil flows through the Druzhba pipeline to Hungary and Slovakia. Ukraine maintained that the line remains unrepaired following Russian strikes and noted that its drones had targeted a related Russian pumping station. In the U.S., markets rotated back into tech and AI ahead of key earnings, while economic data signaled slowing growth and wider trade deficits.
Global Updates
- The MSCI All Country World Index rose earlier but later fell and remained volatile as lofty tech valuations and Nvidia’s earnings reaction unsettled markets.
- The advance estimate shows the U.S. economy grew 1.4% in Q4 2025, its slowest pace since early 2025 and below the 3% forecast.
- The U.S. trade deficit widened in December as exports declined, driven largely by a sharp drop in nonmonetary gold shipments.
- US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) are currently running around 2.5%, as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
- New single‑family home sales in the U.S. dipped in December 2025 to 745,000 units, after reaching their highest level in nearly four years.
- Annual inflation in the Euro Area was confirmed at 1.7% in January 2026, down from 2.0% in December.
- UK car production dropped 8.2% in January to 65,249 units, as declining export demand in major global markets weighed on output.
- Russia accused Ukraine of endangering Europe’s energy supply by halting Druzhba pipeline flows, while Ukraine says the line remains unrepaired after Russian strikes and its drones also targeted a related pumping station.
- Hyundai Motor Group and the South Korean government agreed to invest about 9 trillion won to develop an AI data center and robotics facilities, including a 5.8‑trillion‑won center with 50,000 GPUs.
- Syngenta Group plans to seek a Hong Kong listing of up to $10 billion in the second quarter and has appointed banks to handle the IPO, sources said.
- Venezuela’s fuel station operators declared an emergency over unsustainably low earnings, urging the government to finally standardize prices after years of ignored requests.
- Britain’s trade minister expressed confidence that last year’s U.S.–UK trade deal remains secure, even as President Trump introduces a new import tariff that may rise to 15%.
U.S. Equity
- U.S. stocks climbed as investors shifted back into tech and AI shares ahead of key earnings, supported by renewed AI optimism and policy signals from Trump’s 2026 address.
- NVIDIA announced fourth‑quarter revenue of $68.1 billion, rising 20% from last quarter and 73% year‑over‑year, with fiscal 2026 revenue reaching $215.9 billion, up 65%.
- Bank of Montreal reported strong Q1 2025 results, posting EPS of $3.04—well above the $2.44 forecast—highlighting solid financial performance for the $76.49 billion bank.
- President Trump announced he had signed a new executive order creating a swift 10% global tariff, later raising it to 15%, after the Supreme Court blocked his earlier reciprocal duties.
- The White House has excluded Mexico and Canada from the newly imposed tariffs.
- A new proposed oil pipeline—from the Canadian border to a Wyoming hub—could make use of sections of pipe originally installed for the cancelled Keystone XL project.
- During the longest State of the Union address in U.S. history, President Trump delivered a firm message on Iran, emphasizing that ongoing nuclear negotiations are taking place under the continued consideration of U.S. military options.
- Canada’s plan to lift defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035 has sparked a major surge among domestic defense firms competing for new contracts.
Fixed Income
- The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index advanced over the week.
- The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose up to 4.004% and the yield on the 2-year note rose to 3.424% over the week.
- The U.S. Dollar Index fell to 97.63 over the week.
HCM-030624-063.GWS
