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November 28, 2025

Monetary Easing and AI Optimism Drive Global Markets Rebound

Global markets rose over the week ending the market pullback over the past few weeks. The renewed optimism over potential Federal Reserve rate cuts and AI-related technology stocks helped supported broader market gains. Economic data released this week indicated recovery in manufacturing and services. Apple surpassed Samsung as the leading supplier of smartphones. Alphabet gained from Meta’s exploration of the possibility of replacing Nvidia’s chips with Google’s custom AI chips. A Bloomberg analysis has estimated record volumes of bonds being issued to fund $570 billion in AI-related capex for data centers and GPUs by big technology firms like Alphabet, Meta, Amazon, etc. 

On the geopolitical front, U.S. and Ukrainian officials held talks in Abu Dhabi amid Washington’s renewed push for a Ukraine peace deal, even as Kyiv endured deadly missile strikes and NATO states reported escalating drone incursions. A catastrophic blaze tore through the Wang Fuk Court residential complex in Hong Kong’s Tai Po district, leading to multiple casualties. The U.K. budget raised taxes on dividends and properties. Middle East ceasefire remains fragile amid Israeli strikes in Gaza and Lebanon, while Houthi suspension of Red Sea attacks offered cautious optimism for Suez Canal traffic. The G20 Summit in South Africa proceeded without US attendance due to bilateral disputes, highlighting geopolitical fragmentation.

Global Updates
  • The MSCI All Country World Index rose over the week, as renewed optimism over potential Federal Reserve rate cuts led to broader market gains.
  • BHP has withdrawn its plans to acquire Anglo American. Anglo and Teck Resources announced a $53 billion merger deal, which was later approved by the Canadian government.
  • Novo Nordisk stock price has declined following Ozempic’s failed its Alzheimer’s drug trial. The stock recovered after Amycretin yielded promising results in its diabetes drug trials. 
  • Canadian retail sales in September exceeded expectations despite a 0.7% overall decline, driven by a sharp 2.9% drop in motor vehicles and parts.
  • The UK budget increased taxes on dividends, payments to shareholders, as well as on property and savings income by 2%, and is expected to generate an additional £2.1 billion in revenue for the U.K. government. 
  • Ukraine has rejected the leaked 28-point U.S. peace plan as favoring Russia. A revised 19-point draft was approved by Kyiv following the Geneva talks between U.S. and Ukrainian officials, in which NATO membership and territorial sovereignty remain unresolved.
  • China’s Taiping Insurance Holdings company shares plunged following reports the company could face significant losses from its exposure to the massive fire at Hong Kong’s Wang Fuk Court residential complex.
  • Crude prices rebounded early in the week after last week’s steep losses, supported by rising expectations of a U.S. Fed rate cut and fading optimism over a Russia–Ukraine peace deal.
  • Copper surged to record highs on supply disruptions in Chile and Indonesia and strong demand from EV and data center sectors. UBS has projected a copper market deficit of nearly 407,000 tonnes by 2026.
U.S. Equity
  • U.S. equity markets recovered this week with the broad equity market indices S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones rising over the shorter thanksgiving trading week. The upward revision of the rate cut probability to 70% due to labor market weakness, as suggested by Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller and New York Fed President John Williams, contributed to a recovery of the equity markets. The earnings reported so far indicate 8% higher sales and 15% higher earnings over the previous quarter, marking the seventh consecutive quarter of growth in corporate revenues and earnings. Five sectors have reported earnings growth higher than 20%. 
  • In economic data, the third quarter U.S. GDP growth is now estimated at 3% by The Economist and above 4% by the Atlanta Fed. 
  • The S&P Global US PMI signaled an expansion in manufacturing and services with PMI readings of 52.5 and 55 in October. The Producer Price Index rose by 0.3% in September, primarily due to higher food and energy costs.
  • The University of Michigan has lowered its US inflation expectations for the 1-year and 10-year periods to 4.5% and 3.4% respectively. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index also declined to a seven-month low of 88.7 in November.
  • Tesla stock rallied after CEO Elon Musk announced plans to aggressively scale AI chip production aggressively and investing in new chip designs and eventually surpass other chip makers. 
  • President Trump’s plans to extend subsidies to lower the costs of health care premiums under the Affordable Care Act were compromised by conservative republicans. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had earlier indicated significant health care policy announcements to reduce costs would be made during the week. 
  • Reports suggest Meta is exploring the use of Google’s custom AI chips, which has weighed on Nvidia’s stock prices due to expectations of increased competition for its chips. On the other hand, Alphabet stock continued to rally pushing the company’s market capitalization close to the $4 trillion benchmark. 
  • The trading platform operator Robinhood Markets’ stock rallied after the company announced its plans to acquire a stake in LedgerX, to expand its presence in the contracts market.
  • Dell Technologies’ stock rallied after raising its full-year revenue outlook to  the $111.2 billion to $112.2 billion range and earnings midpoint to $9.92. Dell attributed the upward revision to a higher AI-driven demand for its AI servers.
  • HP announced plans to offload approximately 10% of its workforce, 4,000 to 6,00 roles over the next three fiscal years to save $1 billion. 
  • Apple is expected to replace Samsung as the leading smartphone supplier reaching 19.4% of the global market for the first time. 
  • Kevin Hassett, the Director of the National Economic Council, has been identified as the leading contender to replace Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
Fixed Income
  • The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index rose over the week.
  • The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield declined to 4.009% and the yield on the 2-year note edged up to 3.51% over the week. 
  • The U.S. Dollar Index declined to 99.684 this week due to the higher likelihood of a December rate cut.

HCM-030624-063.GWS

November 21, 2025

Global Equities Under Pressure from Weakness in Technology stocks

Global markets continued to decline over the past week amid concerns of a potential bubble in AI related technology stocks. Equity markets globally mirrored the downturn in U.S. markets, primarily due to a pullback in technology stocks. However, strong third-quarter earnings reported by Nvidia temporarily eased investor fears and provided a brief boost to broader market sentiment. Meanwhile, stronger-than-expected employment data for September, coupled with hawkish commentary from policymakers, reduced expectations of a rate cut in December.

On the geopolitical front, the United States and Saudi Arabia finalized a security agreement designating Saudi Arabia as a major non-NATO ally. The agreement grants Saudi Arabia access to advanced U.S. defense technology, including F-35 fighter jets and Nvidia chips. Additionally, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman pledged to invest $1 trillion in the United States. In Canada, Parliament passed Prime Minister Mark Carney’s inaugural budget, averting the risk of snap elections. Tensions between China and Japan resurfaced over Taiwan-related issues. In the U.S., President Trump signed legislation approving the release of the Epstein files. President Trump also lowered tariffs on imported foods.

Global Updates
  • The MSCI All Country World Index declined over the week, reflecting weakness across global equities.
  • Switzerland finalized a trade agreement with the United States, reducing U.S. tariffs from 39% to 15%.
  • Shares of Swedish aerospace company Saab rallied following the announcement of a $3.6 billion deal with the Colombian government for 17 Gripen fighter jets.
  • London-based HSBC is restructuring its capital markets business to strengthen its debt financing division.
  • The Canadian Parliament averted snap elections by passing Prime Minister Mark Carney’s deficit-heavy first budget, which includes a stablecoin policy overseen by the Bank of Canada.
  • Airbus stock surged after securing a $24 billion deal with budget carrier flydubai for 150 jets, with an option for 100 additional aircraft.
  • ByteDance’s valuation rose to $480 billion following a successful auction of its shares.
  • Anticipation of a large stimulus package from Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi pushed long-term borrowing costs higher. Yields on 10-year and 30-year Japanese Government Bonds reached 1.75% (highest since 2008) and 3.32% (record high since issuance), respectively. Japanese equities attracted foreign inflows of ¥1.02 trillion, primarily into technology stocks.
  • Gold ended the week lower amid reduced expectations of a December rate cut.
  • Crude oil prices declined due to interest rate uncertainty and expectations of increased supply, following President Zelenskiy’s willingness to negotiate a Russia–Ukraine peace deal ahead of the U.S. sanctions deadline on Russian energy (November 21).
U.S. Equity
  • Investors pulled back from U.S. equities during the week, reflected in declines across the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq. The retreat from technology stocks drove a broader market downswing, though Nvidia’s stellar returns briefly reversed the trend. Investor concerns remain elevated over overstretched valuations, technology depreciation, and circular deal structures. Amazon founder Jeff Bezos also advised consumers to postpone major purchases, citing the potential risk of an economic recession.
  • The U.S. economy added 119,000 non-farm jobs in September, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, its highest level in 47 months, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Strong labor market data and hawkish commentary in the Fed minutes have reduced the likelihood of a December rate cut to below 50%.
  • Nvidia CEO Jensen Wang dismissed fears of an AI bubble after the company reported an adjusted EPS of $1.30, beating expectations, on revenue growth of 62% to $57 billion in the fiscal third quarter. Nvidia also raised its fourth-quarter revenue outlook to $65 billion, driven by growing AI demand for Rubin and Blackwell architectures.
  • Alphabet shares rallied earlier in the week following Berkshire Hathaway’s $4.9 billion investment in the company. Positive feedback on the performance of Gemini 3 further supported the rally.
  • Walmart reported an adjusted EPS of $0.52, beating estimates, on 5.8% revenue growth to $179.5 billion in the third quarter. Sales rose 4.2%, e-commerce grew 27%, and advertising revenue surged 53%. The retailer raised its full-year revenue growth outlook to 5.1% and adjusted EPS guidance to the $2.58–$2.63 range.
  • Anthropic’s valuation climbed to $350 billion following strategic investments of $5 billion by Microsoft and $10 billion by Nvidia. Azure committed to purchasing 1 gigawatt of computing capacity in Nvidia systems and $30 billion of Microsoft’s computing capacity in Azure.
  • The U.S. government extended a $1 billion loan to Constellation Energy to restart the nuclear reactor at Three Mile Island to meet the rising energy demand.
  • Home Depot posted third-quarter adjusted EPS of $3.74, missing estimates, on revenue of $41.35 billion. The company lowered its full-year earnings outlook by 5%, citing expectations of reduced consumer spending.
  • Lowe’s reported an adjusted EPS of $3.06, beating expectations, on third-quarter revenue of $20.81 billion. However, the company revised its full-year profit outlook downward due to economic slowdown concerns.
  • Target announced a collaboration with OpenAI to attract customers and reverse declining sales. Third-quarter sales fell 1.5% to $25.3 billion, leading to a 3.9% decline in diluted EPS. The retailer also lowered its full-year profit guidance.
  • Boeing signed a provisional agreement with flydubai for 75 of its 737 Max jets, valued at $13 billion.
  • Microsoft and Amazon expressed support for the GAIN AI Act, which aims to prioritize domestic order fulfillment and restrict the export of AI chips to China.
Fixed Income
  • The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index declined over the week.
  • The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield declined to 4.061% and the yield on the 2-year note edged lower to 516% over the week.
  • The S. Dollar Index rose to 100.22 this week due to the decreasing probability of a December rate cut and a falling Yen.

HCM-030624-063.GWS

November 14, 2025

Fed Uncertainty and AI Concerns Lead to Market Jitters

Global equity markets rose slightly over the week, despite a massive selloff on Thursday. Earlier in the week, expectations of an end to the government shutdown initially buoyed the markets. The Dow Jones index also crossed the 48,000 benchmark earlier in the week but lost 800 points on Thursday. Fears of a market correction drove investors out of tech stocks. The diminished possibility of a rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) December meeting also weighed on investor sentiments. 

In global geopolitics, the record-breaking 43-day U.S. government shutdown ended after the House of Representatives passed a bill funding the federal government through January 2026. Earlier in the week adverse weather conditions and a shortage of air traffic controllers had caused disruptions and delays to more than 10,000 flights across the United States. In Canada the opposition Conservative Party lost two of its Members of Parliament to resignation and defection, ahead of the upcoming budget vote on November 17. In the UK Health Secretary Wes Streeting has dismissed the public speculations of any plans to challenge Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s leadership.

Global Updates
  • The MSCI All Country World Index posted modest gains over the week, mirroring the rise and subsequent pullback in U.S. equity markets. International investors were initially encouraged by the announcement of a one-year suspension of port fees between the U.S. and China on each other’s shipping fleets. However, later in the week, growing concerns about a potential bubble in AI-related stocks weighed on global sentiment. 
  • In the UK, the ILO unemployment rate rose to 5% for the three-month period ending September, which is the highest unemployment rate since the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • Great-West Lifeco is in the process of consolidating its European subsidiaries into Keyridge Asset Management, which will have $185 billion in assets under management.
  • The Canadian economy added an estimated 67,000 jobs in October, surpassing expectations, while the unemployment rate declined to 6.9%. Job growth was primarily driven by part-time positions, as full-time employment contracted. Additionally, the average hourly wage increased by 4% during the month.
  • Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s preference for low interest rates led to a decline in the Yen. 
  •  The International Energy Agency has projected a 13% growth in global crude oil demand which is expected to reach 113 million barrels per day by 2050.
  • Gold and silver prices posted weekly gains despite a mild pullback following the U.S. government reopening. 
  • Oil prices ended the week lower due to the decline induced by fears of a supply glut. However, prices rose following the Ukrainian drone attack on Novorossiysk. The supply risks from the upcoming sanctions against Lukoil also concerned investors.
U.S. Equity
  • The S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq indices posted gains earlier in the week, with the Dow Jones surpassing the record 48,000 mark on Wednesday. However, markets retreated on Thursday amid concerns over a potential AI-driven bubble and diminishing expectations of a December rate cut. The Dow fell by 797 points, while the Nasdaq declined sharply by 2.3% in a single session. Goldman Sachs’ Chief Strategist Peter Oppenheimer also suggested the global equity markets will outperform the U.S. equities over the coming decade. Investor sentiment was further dampened by cautionary remarks from Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon regarding an AI bubble and Ray Dalio’s warning about the escalating national debt, which has now exceeded $38 trillion. Additionally, the U.S. House of Representatives passed a funding bill to end the 43-day government shutdown. The bill will keep the government funded through January 2026. 
  • Policymakers at the Federal Reserve have expressed concerns about the inflationary risks associated with a potential December rate cut, particularly given the continued stability in the labor market. The absence of labor market data, which was discontinued during the recent government shutdown, is also expected to obfuscate the estimated impact of a rate cut. However, the ADP payroll data has estimated a loss of more than 11,000 jobs over the four-week period ending October 25th. 
  • Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has requested TSMC to increase the supply of AI chip components including wafers to meet the exponential growth in the demand for its Blackwell AI chips. Nvidia stock declined in the week due to the offloading of Nvidia stock by SoftBank.
  • The U.S. travel industry is estimated to have lost $5.7 billion in revenues due to the decline in Canadian tourists to the U.S. since the U.S.-Canada political frictions began earlier in the year.
Fixed Income
  • The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index declined following an initial rise over the week.
  • The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.111% and the yield on the 2-year note rose to 3.589% over the week. 
  • The U.S. Dollar Index edged lower to 99.26 this week due to diminishing likelihood of a rate cut in December.

HCM-030624-063.GWS

November 7, 2025

Tech Sell-Off and Global Uncertainty Shape Investor Sentiment

This week, global equity markets declined, driven by expectations of a correction in AI-focused technology stocks. Investor sentiment was dampened by Berkshire Hathaway’s stock offloading and cautionary signals from major asset managers citing an overheated market. This created a self-fulfilling cycle that pressured tech stocks worldwide. Additionally, data pointing to an economic slowdown both globally and in the U.S. labor market, further contributed to the market cooling. In contrast, healthcare stocks rose following an agreement between the U.S. government and pharmaceutical firms Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk.

In global geopolitics, the U.S. government shutdown reached a record-breaking 37th day. Meanwhile, U.S.-Canada trade negotiations remained stalled, despite Prime Minister Mark Carney’s formal apology to President Trump over Ontario’s anti-tariff advertisement. Democratic candidates secured gubernatorial victories in New Jersey and Virginia, as well as the New York City mayoral race. Egypt proposed a deal to Israel offering safe passage for Hamas members in exchange for cooperation in dismantling the terror infrastructure in Gaza.

Global Updates
  • The MSCI All Country World Index declined over the week closely tracking U.S. markets and due to the expectations of a market pullback. 
  • Canada reported 0.3% contraction in its GDP in August, due to declining oil and natural gas prices. Canada’s GDP growth is currently estimated at 0.1%  in September and 0.5% for the third quarter.
  • Prime Minister Mark Carney presented his first federal budget, which is estimated to incur a deficit of $78 billion. 
  •  Japan’s SoftBank announced a joint venture with OpenAI to provide enterprise AI services in Japan.
  • The RatingDog China General Services PMI declined to 52.6 in October due to lower international orders, however also indicating continued expansion in China’s services sector. On the other hand, Chinese exports were lower than expected in October due to a 1.1% decline and imports rose by 1%. 
  • Gold futures edged up due to the rising expectation of a rate cut by the U.S. Fed in December and the continuing U.S. government shutdown. 
  • Oil futures ended the week lower on fears of excess supply and cooling demand for oil. The OPEC+ nations have decided to slightly increase the supply in December followed by a pause in further increases over the first quarter of 2026. Weak job market reports and a mandated 10% reduction  in air traffic in the U.S. have also weighed on international oil prices. U.S. crude stocks have also risen due to higher imports.
U.S. Equity
  • The S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq indices were weighed down by concerns of an AI bubble and labour market data. The investors’ AI optimism was originally damaged by Berkshire Hathaway’s stock sales outpacing purchases over the third quarter and its record high cash holdings of $382 billion. The possibility of a 10% to 20% market correction estimated by the major asset managers, including the CEOs of Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, led to a market pullback. s The U.S. Supreme Court is also currently considering the legal validity of the Trump Tariffs, which could have a further impact on the markets. 
  • A report published by Challenger, Gray & Christmas showed that U.S. employers have laid off 153,074 employees in the month of October, due to costs and AI. Technology firms, retailers and service providers led the job cuts in the private sector. The Chicago Fed also estimated unemployment had risen to 4.4% over the month. On the other hand, the ADP jobs report showed the U.S. private sector added 42, 000 jobs in October and pay was 4.5% higher. 
  • President Donald Trump announced deals with Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to cut the prices for their GLP-1 weight-loss drugs for the government’s Medicare and Medicaid programs.
  • Pfizer raised its bid to acquire Metsera to $10B. Pfizer is competing with Novo Nordisk in its bids to takeover the weight-loss startup.
  • Tesla shareholders voted on CEO Elon Musk’s trillion dollar pay package. Tesla is also seeking regulatory approval for its autonomous driving software in China. 
  • U.S. airline stocks lagged following U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy’s order to cut flight traffic by 10% at 40 major U.S. airports. The order was driven by flight disruptions due to the lower availability of air traffic controllers and TSA agents, who have been working without pay since the government shutdown. 
  • Palantir reported an adjusted EPS of $0.21 in the third quarter, on a 63% higher revenue of $1.18 billion. The company raised its full year revenue outlook to the $4.396 billion to $4.4 billion range due to AI driven demand.
  • Advanced Micro Devices posted record 36% growth to a higher-than-expected third-quarter revenue of $9.25 billion and an adjusted EPS of $1.2. Demand for chips by AI data centers led to a 22% jump in sales to $4.3 billion. AMD’s exports of AI chips to China could resume with the one-year U.S.-China trade agreement.
  • In acquisitions this week, Kimberly Clark agreed to acquire Kenvue for $49 billion and Eaton agreed to acquire Boyd Corporation’s thermal business from Goldman Sachs for $9.5 billion.
Fixed Income
  • The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index edged up over the week.
  • The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield edged down to 4.091% and the yield on the 2-year note fell slightly to 3.566% over the week. 
  • The U.S. Dollar Index edged lower to 99.65 this week due to signs of weakness in the U.S. labour market.

HCM-030624-063.GWS

October 31, 2025

From Rate Cuts to Rare Earths: Key Drivers of the Markets This Week

This week, the global equity markets were influenced by major Central Bank policy decisions, corporate earnings and the U.S-China trade deal. President Trump and President Xi Jinping’s meeting in South Korea eased trade tensions between the countries. The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed.) and Bank of Canada (BoC) cut their policy rates by 25 bps. Five of the ‘Magnificent 7’ companies reported higher than expected earnings in the previous quarter. However, the elevated capital expenditure (capex) projections dampened investors’ optimism. 

In global geopolitics, Argentina’s President Javier Milei’s Freedom Advances party, which is also backed by President Trump, doubled its congressional representation in the latest election. President Trump and Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi signed a critical minerals and rare earths agreement, to reduce the dependence on China. President Trump also announced that the U.S. would resume testing of nuclear weapons. President Trump’s meeting with Prime Minister Carney was cancelled and an additional 10% tariff was imposed on Canadian imports. The Gaza ceasefire agreement is in jeopardy due to the renewed conflict in Gaza.

Global Updates
  • The MSCI All Country World Index rose over the week as investors digested corporate earnings reports, central bank actions and improving trade relations. 
  • Eurozone economic growth of 0.2% in the third quarter beat estimates. The European HCOB PMI reading of 50 in October indicated an expansion in European economic activity, which however contracted in France. Employment, however, declined sharply during the month. 
  • Among the major central bank decisions, the BoC implemented a 25 bps rate cut in its policy rate. On the other hand, the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank chose to hold rates steady, prioritizing controlling inflation management. 
  • U.S. and China have reached a preliminary consensus on key issues in their trade talks. The U.S. agreed to lower tariffs on China in leu of rare earth concessions and controlling the drug trade emanating from China. China also resumed its purchases of Soybean cargos from the U.S.
  • President Trump agreed to lower tariffs for Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand and Vietnam in lieu of narrowing their trade imbalances and supply of critical minerals. 
  • Samsung has announced a collaboration with Nvidia to deploy 50,000 Nvidia GPUs to automate and optimize its facilities manufacturing chips for mobile and robots.
  • In China, the official NBS Manufacturing PMI reading of 49.0 for October, marked the 7th consecutive month of contraction. The decline in new orders and foreign sales accelerated despite the competition among distributors, weighing down prices. 
  • Gold prices briefly fell below the $4,000 per ounce benchmark due to the decline in safe haven demand, following the Fed’s rate cut. Gold prices declined over the week, however ending the week higher than the $4,000 benchmark.
  • Oil futures ended the week lower, due to the projected over supply in the market from the OPEC+ countries, planning to raise production by 137,000 barrels per day from December. 
U.S. Equity
  • The S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq indices dipped slightly at the end of the week, after reaching record highs. Investors were enthused by President Trumps lowering of tariffs on China and robust third quarter corporate earnings reports. The spending projections of Meta and Microsoft, however, raised investor concerns. The Fed’s rate cut also had a positive impact on the markets. The markets also displayed a partial market rotation out of big tech. 
  • The U.S. Core CPI inflation was lower than expected, at 0.3% month-over-month and 3% year-over-year for September. The ADP National Employment Report also estimated that 14,250 jobs were added in the U.S. economy over the four-week period ending October 11th.
  • The U.S. Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI for October came in higher than expected at 52.2 and 55.2 respectively, indicating accelerated economic growth.
  • Markets were optimistic regarding the resolution of the Sino-U.S. tariffs at the Trump-Xi meeting in South Korea. President Trump eased tariffs to 47%, in exchange of a crackdown on the fentanyl trade and a stay on the export controls on rare earth by China. The disinvestment in TikTok and export of Nvidia chips remained unresolved. 
  • The Fed eased its policy rate by 25 bps to the 3.75%–4.00% range, to minimize the downside risk in the labor market. Fed Chair Jerome Powell clarified that a future rate cut in the Fed’s December meeting was not a “foregone conclusion” due to the differing opinions among policymakers. 
  • Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced the list of final candidates for Federal Reserve Chair which included Christopher Waller, Michelle Bowman Kevin Warsh, Kevin Hassett, and Rick Rieder. President Trump has said that the nomination will be finalized by the year end.
  • Nvidia became the first company to cross the $5 trillion capitalization benchmark. Nvidia’s stock rallied after CEO Jensen Huang announced an agreement with the U.S. Department of Energy to build seven supercomputers for them. He also mentioned that the company has bookings worth $500 billion for the Blackwell and Rubin AI chips, through 2026.
  • A 20.2% jump in Amazon’s cloud revenue to $33 billion pushed third quarter earnings to $1.95 on revenue of $180.17 billion. Amazon has revised its estimated full year capex to rise to $125 billion in 2025.
  • Eli Lilly shares rallied after the company raised its full-year revenue outlook guidance to the $63 billion to $63.5 billion range, driven by strong demand for its drugs Zepbound and Mounjaro. In the third quarter, the company reported adjusted earnings per share of $7.02 on revenue of $17.6 billion, a 54% year-on-year increase. In the quarter the sales of Mounjaro and Zepbound grew to $6.5 billion and $3.59 billion respectively.  
  • UnitedHealth Group reported a higher-than-expected adjusted EPS of $2.92 in the third quarter. The company’s revenue grew 12% year-on-year to $113.16 billion, in line with expectations. 
  • eBay Inc reported a 14% higher adjusted EPS of $1.36 and a 8% growth in its merchandise volumes to $20.1 billion, generating an 8% higher revenue of $2.82 billion in the third quarter. However, the company’s stock lagged due to a lower-than-expected earnings outlook of $1.31 to $1.36 EPS in the fourth quarter due to the removal of the de minimis exemption.
  • Apple reported a higher-than-expected EPS of $1.85 on an 8% higher revenue of $102.47 billion for the fiscal fourth quarter. The sales of iPhones drove up the earnings and revenues. 
  • NVIDIA has announced a $1 billion investment in the AI startup Poolside.
  • Meta reported a 26% growth in its revenue to $51.24 billion and a higher-than-expected adjusted EPS of $7.25. Meta also reported a $15.93 billion tax charge from President Trump’s ‘One Big Beautiful Bill Act’. However, Meta’s stock lagged due to the aggressive capex plans in the $70 billion and $72 billion range in AI.
  • Microsoft reported a $3.1 billion drop in its fiscal first quarter earnings due to its $13 billion investment in OpenAI. Microsoft reported an EPS of $3.72 during the quarter on a revenue of $77.6 billion. The company’s revenue grew by 18%, driven by a 40% growth in cloud business from Azure.
Fixed Income
  • The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index declined over the week.
  • The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose sharply to 4.101% and the yield on the 2-year note jumped to 3.609% over the week.
  • The U.S. Dollar Index surged up to 99.49 this week owing to the 25 bps rate cut by the Fed.

HCM-030624-063.GWS

October 24, 2025

Global Markets in Flux: Markets React to Earnings, Trade Tensions and Tumbling Metals

This week, global equity markets were marked by heightened volatility as investors digested corporate earnings reports. Tensions between the U.S. and Russia resurfaced, while the possibility of further restrictions in U.S.-China trade added to market uncertainty. Commodity markets also experienced volatility, with gold and silver recording their largest single-day price drop in 12 years. Crude oil prices climbed amid expectations of increased demand. Additionally, expectations for a rate cut at next week’s Federal Reserve meeting intensified, following softer-than-expected consumer inflation data for September.

In global geopolitics, President Trump’s meeting with President Putin in Hungary was called off, followed by the imposition of new U.S. and E.U. sanctions on Russia. President Trump is scheduled to meet with President Xi Jinping on October 30 in South Korea. The U.S. federal government shutdown entered its fourth consecutive week. Sanae Takaichi was elected as Japan’s first female prime minister, after the Japan Innovation Party and the ruling Liberal Democratic Party formed a coalition government. Global leaders are expected to attend the ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur over the weekend. President Trump also cancelled ongoing trade negotiations with Canada, citing the misuse of former President Ronald Reagan’s voice in an anti-tariff advertisement. Meanwhile, the U.S. plans to seek a United Nations mandate to establish a Gaza security force, following the resumption of the Israel-Hamas ceasefire after renewed hostilities on Sunday.

Global Updates
  • The MSCI All Country World Index advanced over the week as global markets absorbed mixed corporate earnings reports. Markets also tracked declines in U.S. equities, driven by concerns over renewed tensions in U.S.-China trade relations. Earlier this week, President Trump remarked on the unsustainability of current high tariffs on China and expressed optimism about the U.S.-China relationship.
  • The HCOB Flash Eurozone Composite PMI rose to 52.2 in October, while the Manufacturing PMI increased to 50.0, signaling an expansion in business activity for the month.
  • Retail sales in the U.K. are estimated to have grown by 0.5% in September, defying expectations of a contraction amid concerns of an economic slowdown.
  • A meeting is scheduled for October 30 in South Korea between President Trump and President Xi Jinping to address trade tensions ahead of the November 1 deadline for additional tariffs. Tensions have escalated with the introduction of port fees and export restrictions on rare earths and technology.
  • Newly elected Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is expected to announce an economic stimulus package to support households in managing inflation. Takaichi is also expected to adopt a dovish policy stance, paving the way for monetary and fiscal easing.
  • SoftBank announced plans to issue $2 billion in U.S.-dollar-denominated bonds and €750 million in hybrid notes, while also planning to expand its investments in artificial intelligence.
  • Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is scheduled to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping next week to discuss enhancing bilateral trade relations and mitigating the impact of U.S. tariffs.
  • The Kospi Index rose on optimism surrounding the potential finalization of a U.S.–South Korea trade agreement, ahead of the APEC Summit in South Korea next week.
  • The U.S. and India are nearing a trade agreement, conditional on India reducing its imports of Russian crude. Indian refiners have begun discussions with Middle Eastern suppliers to secure alternative sources of crude oil.
  • U.S. sanctions on Lukoil and Rosneft have contributed to a rise in crude oil futures. Earlier this week, oil prices climbed after the U.S. Department of Energy announced plans to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
  • The year-long rally in gold prices experienced a sharp pullback, with the largest single-day drop in gold and silver prices in 12 years. However, gold futures rebounded later in the week, supported by new sanctions on Russian entities. The underlying structural drivers of safe-haven demand for precious metals remain intact.
U.S. Equity
  • The S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq indices experienced heightened volatility this week as investors digested earnings reports, shifts in trade policy, and the anticipated release of the CPI inflation report. Earlier in the week, U.S. markets gained ground following mixed earnings results. However, the breakdown in U.S.-Russia negotiations and the possibility of new restrictions on software exports to China led to a midweek decline. Markets rebounded later in the week as additional earnings reports were released.
  • The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported a softer-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate of 3% for September. Markets now anticipate a potential rate cut at next week’s Federal Reserve meeting.
  • The U.S. Supreme Court is facing funding constraints, and essential personnel such as law enforcement officers and air traffic controllers are being required to work without pay, as the federal government shutdown entered its fourth week.
  • Intel reported a better-than-expected third quarter earnings per share (EPS) of $0.23, supported by a 3% revenue increase to $13.7 billion. The company has raised its fourth-quarter revenue forecast to a range of $12.8 billion to $13.8 billion.
  • Procter & Gamble reported a stronger-than-expected adjusted EPS of $1.99 and a 3% increase in sales, reaching $22.39 billion for the fiscal first quarter of 2026.
  • Tesla posted a lower-than-expected third-quarter EPS of $0.50, despite reporting higher-than-estimated revenue of $28.10 billion and free cash flow of $3.99 billion.
  • Netflix’s third-quarter earnings fell short of expectations, with an EPS of $5.87 on revenue of $11.51 billion. The earnings miss was attributed to expenses related to a Brazilian tax dispute.
  • American Airlines posted a smaller-than-expected adjusted quarterly loss of $0.17 per share, on a 0.3% increase in revenue to $13.69 billion.
  • West Pharmaceutical Services’ stock rallied after the company reported an adjusted EPS of $1.96 for the third quarter, supported by a 5% revenue increase to $805 million.
  • IBM reported lower-than-expected third-quarter software revenue of $7.21 billion, with total revenue reaching $16.33 billion, and an adjusted EPS of $2.65.
  • Intuitive Surgical posted a better-than-expected third quarter adjusted EPS of $2.40, driven by 23% revenue growth to $2.51 billion. The company also revised its full-year revenue growth outlook upward to a range of 17% to 17.5%.
  • Barclays’ stock surged following the announcement of a $670 million share buyback program and an upward revision of its full-year profit and performance targets.
Fixed Income
  • The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index declined slightly over the week.
  • The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield declined to 3.989%. On the other hand, the yield on the 2-year note rose to 482% over the week.
  • The U.S. Dollar Index rose this week to 98.91 initially rising due to the U.S.-China trade tensions and later settling down after September’s CPI inflation was lower-than-expected.

HCM-030624-063.GWS

October 17, 2025

Volatility continues to dominate as Fed reaffirms its dovish stance

This week global equity markets were volatile, in a slight recovery from the resumption of the U.S.-China frictions in the previous week. In a sequence of earnings reports, large U.S. banks have posted significantly higher revenues and earnings in the third quarter. However, credit risks in the banking sector weighed on market returns later in the week. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled further rate cuts justified by labour market weakness. The Fed is also likely to pause its quantitative tightening measures.

In global geopolitics, President Trump and President Putin had a two-hour long phone call to discuss the Ukraine war, ahead of their meeting in Budapest. Nine high ranking generals were arrested by China for undisclosed reasons. Japan’s lower house scheduled the parliamentary vote to select the next prime minister of Japan on October 21st. President Trump proposed the possibility of an intervention in Gaza to disarm Hamas.

Global Updates
  • The MSCI All Country World Index rose over the week, despite exhibiting volatility. Third quarter earnings and resumption of China-U.S. frictions weighed on U.S. and international markets. 
  • ASML reported net sales of €7.5 billion in the third quarter, fueled by the demand for AI infrastructure. 
  • TSMC has reported a AI driven 41% jump in its third quarter revenues to $33.2 billion, which netted an EPS of $2.92 for investors. 
  • BOJ Governor Ueda clarified that any hike in the Bank of Japan’s key policy rate would be conditional on growth and inflation.
  • Economic uncertainty has driven gold futures past the $4,300/oz benchmark this week. The U.S. government shutdown and U.S.-China frictions have increased the perceived economic and market uncertainty. 
  • Nestle stock rose after the company announced its plans to cut 16,000 jobs. The company aims to improve operational efficiency and raise profitability. 
  • South Korea’s Kospi index rose to record highs on expectations of success in trade talks with the U.S. 
  • Oil prices are headed for a weekly loss due to the current oversupply in markets and the possibility of peace in Ukraine. The International Energy Agency has also projected a supply glut in 2026 based on increased crude inventories in the U.S. and China.
U.S. Equity
  • The S&P 500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq indices exhibited volatility. Earlier in the week the U.S. markets recovered slightly from the U.S.-China frictions which had developed in the previous week. The president had reacted to China’s restrictions on rare earth exports to the U.S., with the threat of further tariffs.  The expectations for a rate cut in the near future also rose after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated that weakness in the labour market could lead to further interest rate cuts. The Fed is also considering pausing its quantitative tightening measures.
  • In the three weeks of the U.S. government shutdown major economic reports have not been collected and published, which is likely to result in a time-gap in the official statistics. 
  • Goldman Sachs Group has posted $4.10 billion in third quarter earnings on a revenue of $15.18 billion.
  • JPMorgan Chase has reported a 9% growth in its third quarter revenue of $47.12 billion and 12% jump in profits to $14.39 billion. 
  • Zions Bancorporation announced that it will be taking a provision of $60 million and a $50 million charge-off in the third quarter, to manage defaults by two of its borrowers. Alliance Bancorp also announced a lawsuit for fraud against a borrower. Western Alliance Bancorp also announced their exposure to the same borrowers
  • Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly stock price fell after President Trump commented on the pricing of their GLP-1 weight loss drugs.. 
  • Walmart has announced a collaboration with OpenAI to facilitate an improved retail experience for customers. 
  • Salesforce has projected an annual growth exceeding 10% in the next five years, driven by the demand for its Agentforce software. The company’s revenue is expected to be higher than $60 billion in 2030.
  • The Artificial Intelligence Infrastructure Partnership (AIP), which includes BlackRock, MGX, Microsoft and Nvidia, has agreed to a $40 billion deal for acquiring Aligned Data Centers from Macquarie Asset Management.
Fixed Income
  • The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index rose over the week.
  • The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 3.976% and the yield on the 2-year note dropped to 3.426% over the week, on expectations of a rate cut. 
  • The U.S. Dollar Index recovered this week to depreciate to 98.22, amid U.S.-China trade tensions and expectations of a rate cut.

HCM-030624-063.GWS

October 10, 2025

Shutdown Stalemate Softens Investor Sentiment

This week global equity markets edged lower over the week. The U.S. markets touched record highs and pulled back due to political uncertainty and weakness in blue chip stocks. Multiple investment proposals between AI companies and OpenAI-AMD AI chips deal elevated AI related equities. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang indicated the growing demand for AI chips and applications. China further tightened rare earth exports. In a surprising turn of events EU has proposed increasing the tariffs on imported steel and reducing the quota for tariff-free steel imports.

In global geopolitics, the US government shutdown continued this week as political negotiations failed to progress on funding the government. A split in Japan’s ruling coalition has reduced the likelihood of Sanae Takaichi becoming Japan’s first female prime minister. The junior partner in the coalition Komeito split from the LDP citing a political funding scandal. Political uncertainty persisted in France even as President Emmanuel Macron sought to appoint a new prime minister to handle an imbalanced government budget. The ceasefire commenced in Gaza after Israel approved the framework for the first phase of the Gaza peace deal initiated by President Trump and Israeli troops withdrew from parts of Gaza.

Global Updates
  • The MSCI All Country World Index edged lower this week, reflecting the volatility in U.S. markets and the political instability in the U.S., Asia and Europe. The continuing political uncertainty in France and Japan weakened the Yen and the Euro and influenced investors’ sentiments. A quick end of the government shutdown in the U.S. is not yet visible. 
  • Ferrari stock lagged after the company lowered its EV target for 2030 sports car lineup to 20% EVs against the earlier projection of 40% EV sales. 
  • The European Union’s announcement of higher tariffs on imported steel and limiting the tariff free quota for steel imports, weighed on U.K.’s steel industry and boosted EU producers of steel. 
  • The SoftBank Group plans to acquire Swiss engineering firm ABB’s robotics division for $5.4 billion.  
  • British chip designer Graphcore, owned by SoftBank, plans to invest $1.3 billion in a new research hub in India.
  • HSBC has proposed the privatization of Hang Seng on Thursday as a wholly owned subsidiary of HSBC Asia Pacific. HSBC is already a controlling shareholder with a 63% stake in the bank.
  • Novo Nordisk announced plans to acquire U.S. biotech firm Akero Therapeutics for $4.7 billion.
  • SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics stocks rallied on AI enthusiasm. Both companies stand to benefit from OpenAI’s plans to acquire a 10% stake in Advanced Micro Devices.
  • Gold crossed the $4,000/oz mark for the first time this week driven by safe haven demand. 
  • Crude oil prices experienced some volatility this week resulting in a drop in crude oil futures.  The upward pressure from higher U.S. demand and continuing Russia sanctions was offset by the possibility of tensions easing in the Middle East and OPEC+ countries’ plans to increase supplies.
U.S. Equity
  • The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices fluctuated over the week touching record highs and then pulling back. On the other hand, the Dow Jones index edged lower over the week due to weakness in blue chip stocks. But the downside was restricted by the gains in Nvidia. The continuing government shutdown also finally started weighing down on investor sentiments.  
  • A Federal Reserve Bank of New York report projected higher near term inflation and increased expectations of higher unemployment.
  • Oracle’s stock price declined earlier in the week after reports suggested that the profitability of its cloud business is weaker than expected and the business plan to rent out Nvidia’s  AI chips would not be profitable due to the cost of Nvidia chips and aggressive rental pricing planned. However, Oracle stock recovered over the week.
  • Nvidia’s stock rallied after CEO Jensen Huang pointed out the growing demand for its AI chips driven by the exponential growth in AI usage and research. He also pointed out the need for building up the energy infrastructure which would be indispensable for the growing AI usage. 
  • The economic impacts of the government shutdown have started to emerge. The IRS announced its plans to furlough at least half of its workforce. U.S. flights were also delayed due to a shortage in the availability of air traffic control. 
  • Delta Airlines raised its end of year outlook due to higher airfares and the resurgent demand for premium travel. The company raised its expected fourth-quarter earnings to the $1.6-1.9 range with a 4% growth in revenue. Delta posted 11% higher third quarter profit of $1.42 billion.
  • Costco stock rallied after the big-box retailer reported 8% higher net sales of $26.58 billion for the five week period ended October 5th. 
  • The mobile app monetization company AppLovin’s stock rallied after a brief dip due to a report suggesting the SEC was investigating the company. 
  • U.S. rare earth company MP materials’ stock gained after China tightened export controls for rare earth materials ahead of the meeting of President Trump and President Xi. The company has signed a partnership agreement with the Department of Defense.    
  • Nuclear technology producer Oklo’s stock rallied in anticipation of strong AI driven demand for nuclear energy. 
  • The White House’s announcement reversing the Biden era halt on the Ambler Road project in Alaska drove up the stock price for Canadian mining firm Trilogy Metals. The U.S. government will also be acquiring a 10% stake in the company.
  • IBM announced a collaboration with Anthropic to integrate its Claude LLM with its enterprise software.
  • Tesla’s lower-priced Model 3 and Y models, priced slightly below $40,000, dampened investors’ anticipation of cheaper models.
Fixed Income
  • The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index fell over the week.
  • The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.148% and the yield on the 2-year note edged up to 3.599% over the week. 
  • The U.S. Dollar Index recovered this week to appreciate to 99.29 buoyed by the weakness in the Yen and the Euro.

HCM-030624-063.GWS

October 3, 2025

Political gridlock couldn’t dampen investor optimism

This week global equity markets rallied over the week with the U.S. markets touching record highs. AI companies dominated the rally due to inter-company agreements. Pharmaceutical companies found relief from tariff fears due to Pfizer’s agreement with the Trump administration. Gold continued to rise. Global economic indicators, however, indicated the possibility of a global slowdown. 

In global geopolitics, the US government officially entered a shutdown on Tuesday for the first time in 7 years. The Trump administration also withdrew the nomination of E.J. Antoni who had earlier been selected for the position of Commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In Japan, Sanae Takaichi was elected the leader of Japan’s ruling Conservative Party and very likely to become Japan’s first female Prime Minister, following a parliamentary vote on October 15. French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu submitted his resignation to President Emmanuel Macron.

Global Updates
  • The MSCI All Country World Index rose over the week, closely tracking the U.S. markets.
  • Canada’s Services PMI fell to 46.3 in September, marking the third consecutive month of contraction amid a decline in jobs.
  • In the European Union inflation is estimated to have risen to 2.2% in September due to higher energy costs. This exceeded the European Central Bank’s 2% inflation benchmark. 
  • Canadian rare earth company Lithium Americas’ stock rallied following the U.S. government’s acquisition of a 5% equity stake in the company. The government also acquired a 5% stake in the joint venture with General Motors
  • China has declined the purchase of American agricultural products until a trade agreement is finalized between the two countries. President Trump plans to discuss this with President Xi during APEC talks in South Korea. 
  • Precious metals rose in the commodities market, with Gold reaching close to the $4000 per ounce benchmark. 
  • Oil prices declined over the week on fears of oversupply by OPEC countries.
U.S. Equity
  • The S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones indices rose over the week to record highs despite a government shutdown mid-week. The market rally was driven by AI and pharmaceuticals. The Dow Jones Industrial Average also touched the 47,000 benchmark. President Trump has suggested laying off federal workers and defund federal programs in Democrat ruled states if the shutdown persists. The release of the monthly jobs report was also postponed to November due to the shutdown. 
  • The U.S. ISM Services PMI declined to 50.0 in September which signaled a stagnation in the service sector’s growth.
  • OpenAI became the world’s most successful startup reaching a valuation of $500 billion. Hitachi announced collaboration with OpenAI on energy projects, and Fujitsu with Nvidia.
  • Pharma stocks rose over the as President Trump moderated his tariff stance on pharmaceutical companies this week following Pfizer’s relief from import tariffs for three years in exchange for lowering drug prices for the Medicaid program. 
  • Harvard University arrived at an agreement with the Trump administration to invest $500 million in trade schools across the U.S.
Fixed Income
  • The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index rose over the week.
  • The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield edged lower to 4.119% and the yield on the 2-year note declined to 3.572% over the week. 
  • The U.S. Dollar Index recovered this week to appreciate to 97.72

HCM-030624-063.GWS

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