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September 26, 2025

Data dampens rate cut hopes

This week President Trump signed an executive order approving the framework for transferring the ownership of TikTok to American investors. Investors digested U.S. economic data which lowered the likelihood of further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed). President Trump’s announcement of pharmaceutical tariffs weighed on pharma equities. Fed Chair Jerome Powell characterized U.S. equities as “fairly highly valued”. Ukraine’s attack on Russian energy infrastructure is set to reduce crude supplies. 

In global geopolitics, the State of Palestine was formally recognized by the U.K., Canada, France, Australia and several other countries. The Trump administration imposed a $100,000 H-1B visa fee on skilled workers gaining employment in the U.S. which is expected to adversely impact small technology companies. Typhoon Ragasa ravaged East Asia, causing destruction in China, Hong Kong, Philippines and other countries. A cyber attack on European Airports disrupted flight operations over the weekend. President Trump abruptly cancelled a scheduled meeting with Democratic leaders Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries as the U.S. government appeared to be moving closer to a shutdown. European countries have warned Russia against entering European airspace.

Global Updates
  • The MSCI All Country World Index declined, closely tracking the U.S. markets as investors digested new macroeconomic data which reduced the outlook for a further rate cut by the Fed in this year. 
  • Pharmaceutical stocks declined after President Trump announced new pharma tariffs. 
  • European asset managers like BNP Paribas and Natixis are increasingly consolidating to compete with their US rivals
  • AliExpress, the online retail portal of Alibaba plans to leverage lower merchant commissions and lower shipping fees to attract brands from Amazon. 
  • Royal Bank of Canada’s CEO Dave McKay has encouraged Canada and other developed countries to consider the $100,000 U.S. visa fee as a strategic opportunity to attract top global technology talent. 
  • Japan’s core CPI inflation held steady at 2.5% in September and remained above the 2% target benchmark. The prior forecasted rate of inflation was 2.8%. 
  • Alibaba shares rallied this week after the CEO Eddie Wu unveiled plans to invest $53 billion in AI infrastructure over the next three years. He also estimated that over the next five years global investments in AI will exceed $4 trillion. Alibaba group also plans to integrate Nvidia’s AI robotics software with its own AI platform. 
  • Gold futures rose this week, after newly released data dampened the hopes for further rate cuts by the Fed this year. 
  • Oil prices rose this week, after Russia cut its gasoline and diesel exports following attacks on its energy infrastructure leading to supply shortages.
U.S. Equity
  • The S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones indices declined this week due to the pause in AI rally and indications confounding the hopes of two further rate cuts this year. The upward revision of GDP growth in the second quarter and the drop in jobless claims could lower the likelihood of the two rate cuts expected in this year. 
  • Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell described U.S. equity valuations as “fairly highly valued” in a news conference following the FOMC meeting. He reiterated that no risk-free path exists for balancing job growth with controlling inflation. He also refrained from confirming a rate cut in October
  • President Trump has announced a 100% tariff on patented or branded drugs from companies which do not have a manufacturing presence in the U.S. 
  • The U.S. GDP growth rate for Q2, 2025 was revised upward to 3.8%. The growth rate in consumption and business investment were also revised upwards to 2.5% and 7.3% respectively. 
  • President Trump signed an executive order approving the framework for transferring the ownership of TikTok to Americans. Investors. American companies are expected to own 65% of the U.S. assets of TikTok valued at $14bn, and ByteDance will own less than 20%. A board of seven members will manage the company, and Oracle will provide data and cloud services. 
  • Gold ETFs are experiencing elevated inflows following the Fed’s rate cut decision.
  • Lithium Americas shares rallied after the Trump administration’s plans to acquire a 10% equity stake in the company became public. The news also elevated other rare earth stocks.
Fixed Income
  • The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index edged lower this week.
  • The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.174% and the yield on the 2-year note rose to 3.663% over the week. 
  • The U.S. Dollar Index recovered this week to appreciate to 98.41.

HCM-030624-063.GWS

September 19, 2025

Global Markets Rally Amid Central Bank Shifts

This week global equity markets rallied amidst key monetary policy shifts across major economies. The Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada each cut interest rates by 25 basis points, citing economic softening and inflation concerns. Fed Chair Jerome Powell described the move as a “risk management” measure. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan and Bank of England held rates steady, reflecting cautious stances amid persistent inflation and political uncertainty. In the U.S., President Trump renewed his push to end quarterly corporate earnings reporting, advocating for a shift to semiannual disclosures to promote long-term business planning.

In global geopolitics, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio met Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Jerusalem to address the recent Israeli airstrike in Qatar. President Trump visited the United Kingdom, engaging with King Charles III and Prime Minister Keir Starmer, and signed a bilateral tech investment agreement. In Madrid, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent led trade negotiations with China, signaling progress ahead of the November tariff deadline. In Canada, Prime Minister Mark Carney announced a $9.4 billion affordable housing initiative aimed at easing the national housing crisis.

Global Updates
  • The MSCI All Country World Index rose, buoyed by Wall Street gains and investor optimism following expected 25 bps rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve and Bank of Canada. On the other hand, The Bank of England and Bank of Japan held rates steady amid economic and political uncertainty. The Nikkei 225 pared gains due to the BoJ’s cautious stance, while the FTSE 100 benefited from the BoE’s measured approach.
  • U.K. inflation held steady at 3.8% in August, despite food inflation rising to 5.1%.
  • Jose Manuel Campa, head of the European Banking Authority, announced his resignation effective January 31, 2026.
  • The board of Banco Sabadell urged shareholders to reject BBVA’s $17.97 billion acquisition bid, citing a 40% undervaluation.
  • Ivanhoe Mines received a $500 million strategic investment from the Qatar Investment Authority, which received a 4% stake in return.
  • Purpose Investments Inc. plans to contest greenwashing charges filed by the Ontario Securities Commission.
  • Orsted’s stock declined after announcing plans to raise 60 billion Danish kroner via discounted share issuance.
  • Novo Nordisk shares rallied following EMA approval of its diabetes drug Rybelsus for cardiovascular treatment.
  • Thyssenkrupp stock rose after receiving a non-binding acquisition proposal from Jindal Steel for its steel unit.
  • Baidu stock rallied after completing a $618 million offshore bond issuance and announcing an AI collaboration with China Merchants Group.
  • China instructed domestic tech firms to halt purchases of Nvidia AI chips, promoting locally made alternatives.
  • The Kospi index hit a record high after South Korea withdrew a proposal to lower the capital gains tax threshold.
  • Japan’s exports fell 0.1% year on year in August, less than expected, amid U.S. tariffs and front-loaded shipments earlier in the year. Singapore’s exports also dropped by 11.3% in August, driven by weak demand for petrochemicals, machinery, and food products. .
  • Recent data indicates a slowdown in China’s economy, with weaker fixed asset investment, retail sales, and industrial output. Q3 GDP growth is now expected to fall below 5%, largely due to the real estate sector contraction and retail weakness.
  • In the oil market this week, China’s crude stockpiles exceeded 1 million bpd in August due to increased imports and domestic production. Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries and President Trump’s comments on Russian crude buyers contributed to rising global oil prices. U.S. crude inventories fell sharply last week as net imports dropped to a record low, according to the EIA.
  • Gold prices hovered near record highs, supported by expectations of further U.S. rate cuts and safe-haven demand.
U.S. Equity
  • The S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones, and Russell 2000 all hit record highs, driven by the Fed’s 25 bps rate cut and signals of further easing this year. Gains in technology stocks also supported the rally, though investor sentiment was tempered by the Fed’s projection of elevated inflation through 2028.
  • Weekly jobless claims fell by 33,000 to 231,000 for the week ending September 13, indicating continued labor market resilience.
  • The U.S. initiated consultations with Mexico and Canada on the USMCA trade pact, which is set to expire next year.
  • The SEC approved new listing standards and streamlined the approval process for crypto ETFs, paving the way for faster product launches.
  • Veteran investor Ray Dalio advised allocating 10–15% of portfolios to gold and other safe-haven assets amid global policy and economic uncertainty.
  • Microsoft is set to receive an equity stake exceeding $100 billion in OpenAI as it transitions to a for-profit public company. Microsoft will also unbundle Teams from its Office suite in the EU to address antitrust concerns.
  • Intel stock rallied after lowering its fiscal year 2025 operating cost forecast to $16.8 billion, supported by the $3.3 billion sale of a 51% stake in its Altera chip unit and a $5 billion investment from Nvidia for joint chip development.
  • Alphabet’s market cap surpassed $3 trillion, with shares rising to $252.
  • Nvidia faced antitrust allegations from China over its acquisition of Israeli networking technology, amid broader efforts to bolster China’s domestic AI sector and gain leverage in trade talks.
  • Tesla shares rose following a $1 billion stock purchase by CEO Elon Musk and renewed investor optimism around its autonomous driving and robotics initiatives.
  • Novo Nordisk’s U.S. stock gained after positive Phase 3 trial results for its new weight-loss drug Cagrilintide.
  • The Trump administration neared finalization of a TikTok deal with ByteDance, expected to include new investors and continued cloud services from Oracle.
  • FedEx stock rallied on projected $1 billion in cost savings and a full-year EPS outlook of $17.20–$19.00.
Fixed Income
  • The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index edged higher this week.
  • The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.122% and the yield on the 2-year note rose slightly to 569% over the week after labor market data soothed investors’ fears of a slowdown in the labor market.
  • The U.S. Dollar Index recovered this week to depreciate slightly to 97.38. The Fed’s rate cut and labor market data partially raised the dollar from a mid-week slump.

HCM-030624-063.GWS

September 12, 2025

Labor data keeps September rate cut hopes alive despite higher inflation

Global equity markets ended the week higher. Investors have priced in a higher likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in September, after digesting the labor market data published this week, which overshadowed a hotter-than-expected inflation reading in August. Oracle led tech gains this week, due to its $300 billion deal with OpenAI. The UK’s economy stagnated in July and China’s exports slowed down in August. However, Deutsche Bank and Barclays do not expect a significant impact of tariffs on the U.S. economic fundamentals.  

In global geopolitics, Israel launched an attack against Hamas leadership residing in Qatar, which was criticized by multiple countries. Russia initiated significant drone attacks on Ukraine over the weekend. Poland invoked article four of the NATO treaty after Russian drones entered Polish airspace. Meanwhile a joint military exercise between Russia and Belarus commenced this week. Violent protests in Nepal precipitated a political crisis and change in government. French President Emmanuel Macron appointed Sebastien Lecornu as the new Prime Minister of France after Francois Bayrou lost the confidence vote in the French national assembly. Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced his resignation last weekend.

Global Updates
  • The MSCI All Country World Index rose this week, tracking the gains in Wall Street. The Nikkei and U.S. equity market indices touched record highs this week.
  • The European Central Bank held its deposit facility rate steady at 2% for the second consecutive month. 
  • The U.K. economy stagnated in July due to a 0.9% contraction in production which offset the marginal growth in services and construction.  
  • The European Commission has imposed a $3.45 billion fine on Alphabet for anti-trust trade practices. President Trump has threatened the EU with retaliatory actions to protest the fine.
  • Dutch semiconductor company ASML has invested 1.3 billion euros into the French startup Mistral AI. 
  • Vestas Wind’s stock price declined after the U.S. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum’s public statement on not relying on offshore wind for energy consumption. 
  • Ryanair Michael O’Leary has proposed the cancellation of million seats by the next summer in flights to Spain, due to higher passenger taxes. Ryanair has already cancelled 2 million seats to Spain for the coming winter. 
  • The Spanish bank Sabadell’s board has recommended a rejection of BBVA’s $17.97 billion hostile takeover bid due to significant undervaluation, to its shareholders. 
  • Alibaba and Baidu’s stock price rose after the public announcement of the company’s’ deployment of in-house chips to train their AI models. Chinese startup X Square Robot also secured approximately $100 million in funding.
  • China’s export growth slowed to a six-month low of 4.4% annually. The slowdown is attributed to a 33% decline in its exports to the U.S. Rising exports to Asia, Africa and South America could not offset the shortfall in demand from the U.S. 
  • The Japanese tech company SK Hynix’s stock price rose after the company announced the development of its high-bandwidth memory HBM4. 
  • Oil prices declined this week pressured by softening U.S. demand and expected increase in oil supply. OPEC+ plans to increase production and the IEA has projected an increase in global oil supply outpacing earlier expectations. The U.S. has been recommending the E.U.  to impose higher tariffs on India and China to counter their purchase of Russian crude.
U.S. Equity
  • The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones indices rose this week, with the three indices reaching record levels. Equities rose for the third consecutive week reflecting the investor optimism for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September. Weakness in the U.S. labor market reinforced the rate cut expectations, overwhelming indications of higher inflation in August. U.S. courts have permitted Fed Governor Lisa Cook to continue while her court trial continues. A U.S. The Senate panel also voted to advance Stephen Miran’s nomination to the Fed’s board of governors. 
  • The U.S. Labor Department has reported a higher-than-estimated weekly unemployment claims of 263,000 for the week ended September 6th, the highest since October 2021. 27,000 claims were filed in the week. Investors have priced in a higher likelihood of a rate cut in September. 
  • The annual consumer price inflation came in hotter-than-expected at 2.9% in August, the highest since January. The Consumer Price index rose by 0.4% month-on-month in August. The core inflation came in at 3.1%.
  • UnitedHealth’s stock price rose after the company estimated the enrollment of 78% of its members in Medicare insurance plans rated 4-star or above. 
  • JPMorgan Chase’s stock gained after double-digit growth was estimated in its third quarter revenues. 
  • Oracle stock rose this week after the company raised its guidance for the cloud infrastructure business due to growing AI demand. The company expects its cloud infrastructure sales to rise by 77% to $18 billion over the fiscal year. Oracle is reported to have signed a $300 billion deal with OpenAI.
  • Shares of Warner Bros. Discovery rose on the news of a possible majority cash takeover bid by Paramount Skydance.
  • Deutsche Bank raised its target for the S&P 500 to 7,000 by the year-end, from its earlier estimate of 6,550. The company expects the economic impact of tariffs to be lower than expected. Barclays has also raised its year-end target to 6,450 from its earlier estimate of 6,050.
  • The shares of Amsterdam-based and Nvidia-backed AI infrastructure company Nebius Group rose following the company’s $19.4 billion deal with Microsoft. 
  • Nokia has announced a tie up with Super Micro Computers to develop AI-optimized networking solutions for cloud computing service providers.
Fixed Income
  • The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index edged lower this week.
  • The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield declined slightly to 4.038% and the yield on the 2-year note rose slightly to 3.529% over the week.
  • The U.S. Dollar Index depreciated slightly to 97.67 this week.

HCM-030624-063.GWS

September 5, 2025

September rate cut optimism fuels market sentiment

Global equity markets ended the week higher. Investors were increasingly optimistic about a rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in September, due to labour market data published this week. PMI data indicated improved manufacturing in Europe and Asia. U.S. courts permitted Alphabet to retain chrome and android. T Rowe Price Group announced a partnership with Goldman Sachs. Amazon announced a partnership with JetBlue. Norway’s order for British warships raised European defense stocks.

In global geopolitics, the indications of the growing bonhomie between the leaders of China, Russia and India stirred up a storm in Washington DC this week. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and other members of the administration criticized the three leaders. The U.S. Justice Department initiated a probe into potential mortgage fraud by the Fed Governor Lisa Cook. President Trump has suggested the deployment of the National Guard to Chicago to manage crime.

Global Updates
  • The MSCI All Country World Index rose this week, tracking the U.S. markets. The Japanese stock market also rose with the formalization of the 15% tariff rate on Japanese exports to the U.S. European Defense stock also rose, driven by the warships ordered by Norway. Manufacturing data also indicated improved manufacturing activity in Europe and Asia in August 
  • The HCOB Eurozone Manufacturing PMI rose to a three year high of 50.7 in August 2025 from 49.8 in July, entering the expansionary phase for the first time in three years. The expansion was driven by new demand and stronger domestic demand. 
  • Japan’s composite PMI rose to 52.0 in August from 51.6 in July indicating higher private sector activity. The RatingDog China General Services PMI reading of 53 in August indicated an expansion in China’s service sector also. China’s Composite PMI reading of 51.9 also indicated an expansion in private sector activity in August. 
  • The HSBC’s India Services Purchasing Managers’ Index posted a 15-year high reading of 62.9% in August indicating strong service sector activity. India’s GDP growth was also higher than expected at 7.8% in the April to June quarter. 
  • Canada’s trade deficit narrowed to $4.9 billion in July due to exports rising to $61.9 billion and lower imports. The higher exports were driven by the energy and automotive sectors, which offset the declining exports of metal and minerals. 
  • Norway’s $13.5 billion order for British warships raised defense stocks in Europe. 
  • Pharmaceutical drug trial data indicates Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy was more effective than its competitors in reducing heart attack and other risks. 
  • President Trump signed an executive order limiting the tariffs on Japanese automobile imports to 15%. The 15% tariff will be levied on most Japanese imports with a few expectations. 
  • TSMC, Advantest and Lasertec stock prices rose after President Trump reiterated his plans to impose tariffs on semiconductor companies which do not manufacture in the United States. 
  • South Korea’s CPI inflation slowed down to 1.7% in August from 2.1% in July.
  • Japanese company Nidec Corp.’s share price dropped after the company announced an investigation into allegations of improper accounting prices by the group. 
  • Gold prices continued to rise this week to all-time highs due to continuing tariff uncertainty and the growing expectations of a federal rate cut.
  • OPEC+ countries will be discussing increasing their production quotas in the imminent future.  The possibility of a production hike along with the growing U.S. oil stockpiles weighed on oil futures this week.
U.S. Equity
  • The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones indices rose this week, with the S&P 500 closing on a record high this week. Equities rose this week reflecting the investor optimism for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September. Weakness in the U.S. labour market reinforced the rate cut expectations. The markets were however cautious due to possible loss of the Fed’s independence following the Trump administration’s attempt to dismiss Fed Governor Lisa Cook. U.S. courts have ruled that the majority of the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration are illegal.
  • The U.S. labor market showed signs of weakening. The jobless claims data for the week ended Aug. 30 rose by 8,000 claims to 237,000. The ADP Private Sector Payroll data reading of 54,000 came in lower than expected and indicated a slowdown in hiring in August.
  • Alphabet added $230 billion in market capitalization after the U.S. courts permitted the company to retain both chrome and android in a resolution of the antitrust case by the U.S. department of Justice
  • Broadcom stock price rose after the company secured a $10 billion new order for custom AI chips. Broadcom also reported a higher than expected fiscal third quarter adjusted EPS of $1.69 on a 22% higher revenue of $15.96 billion. Broadcom has raised its fourth-quarter revenue forecast to $17.4 billion.
  • Amazon has announced a partnership with JetBlue for its internet business Project Kuiper, using low earth orbit satellites. The free Wifi service is scheduled to commence in 2027.
  • T. Rowe Price Group’s stock price surged after the company announced a partnership with Goldman Sachs to provide ‘public-private investment solutions for clients. Goldman will acquire $1 billion in Rowe Price shares to fulfill the agreement. 
  • Apparel retailer American Eagle’s stock price rose after the company posted second quarter earnings of 45 cents on a revenue of $1.28 billion
  • Hewlett Packard stock rose after the company posted higher than expected fiscal third-quarter earnings of 44 cents.
  • Salesforce posted a second quarter adjusted EPS of $2.91 on a revenue of $10.24 billion. However, the company’s stock price declined despite a 10% revenue growth, due to a conservative third quarter revenue forecast in the $10.24 billion to $10.29 billion range.
  • AI software provider C3.ai’s current CEO Thomas Siebel has been replaced by Stephen Ehikian, after the company withdrew its full-year guidance due to the 19% drop in its fiscal first quarter revenue to $70.3 million.
  • GitLab stock declined despite a 29% jump in fiscal second quarter revenue to $236 million and an adjusted EPS of $0.24. CFO Brian Robins will be moving to Snowflake.
Fixed Income
  • The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index edged lower this week.
  • The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield declined to 4.153% and the yield on the 2-year note declined to 3.581% over the week.
  • The U.S. Dollar Index appreciated to 98.13 this week due to the increasing likelihood of an imminent rate cut by the U.S. Fed.

HCM-030624-063.GWS

August 22, 2025

Markets turn defensive ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole keynote

Global equity markets lagged this week due to uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) potential policy stance at the economic symposium in Jackson Hole. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressed the Trump administration’s approval of revenue flows from tariffs in the U.S.-China trade deal. The unveiling of the EU-U.S. trade deal details weighed on European markets. European defense stocks also declined following talks between President Trump, European leaders, and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

In global events, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) held its policy rate steady. Hurricane Erin hit the U.S. east coast. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and European leaders met President Donald Trump at the White House earlier in the week. President Trump plans to arrange a meeting between President Putin and President Zelenskyy to discuss a peace deal between their two countries. President Putin has reportedly laid down conditions for peace, which include blocking access for Western troops in Ukraine and the renunciation of its aspirations to join NATO, along with its claims on the Donbas region.

Global Updates
  • The MSCI All Country World Index declined this week, closely tracking U.S. market moves. European investors also reviewed the conditions of the U.S.-Europe trade deal, under which the EU committed to purchasing $750 billion in energy and investing $600 billion in the U.S., in exchange for a 15% tariff. Automotive securities fell, while pharmaceutical stocks rose, driven by sector-specific factors. Germany’s GDP contracted by 0.3% in the second quarter, which was greater than the preliminary estimate of a 0.1% decline.
  • U.K. inflation came in higher than expected at 3.8% in July, attributed to increased travel costs during the summer holidays in U.K. schools.
  • Japan’s headline and core inflation rates cooled to 3.1% in July, due to easing food and rice prices. The softer inflation numbers will be considered by the Bank of Japan when deciding whether to raise its policy rate in September.
  • SoftBank’s stock price fell after the Japanese banking giant announced a $2 billion investment in the struggling American tech company Intel.
  • Japan’s exports declined by 2.6% year-over-year in July, exceeding expectations. This drop was driven by contractions of 10.1% in exports to the U.S. and 3.5% to China.
  • The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) left its policy rates unchanged this week, supported by ongoing economic recovery and narrow profit margins for lenders. The PBoC plans to strategically loosen monetary policy and enhance liquidity later in the year.
  • Singapore’s non-oil exports contracted by 4.6% in July, a larger decline than the earlier estimate of 1.8%.
  • Indian equities advanced following the announcement of a simplified taxation regime that is expected to lower taxes on automotive and other major household expenditures. India’s HSBC Composite Flash Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 65.2 in July from 61.1 in June, indicating increased private sector activity.
U.S. Equity
  • The S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones indices declined this week, reflecting the prevailing risk-off sentiment among investors. Investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s policy guidance and Chair Jerome Powell’s address scheduled for Friday. Mixed corporate earnings also disappointed market participants.
  • The Jackson Hole Economic Symposium commenced this week, with investors focused on Chair Powell’s address for insights on the Fed’s economic assessment and to clarify policy direction for both the near and long term.
  • Initial jobless claims for the week ending August 15 rose to a higher-than-anticipated 235,000, and continuing claims increased to 1.97 million. However, S&P Global’s Flash U.S. Composite PMI indicated increased private sector activity, rising to 55.4 in August.
  • Nvidia has paused logistics operations with Amkor Technology and Samsung Electronics—key suppliers for the H20 chip—affecting exports to China. The Chinese government has instructed domestic technology companies to cease purchasing H20 chips, citing security concerns. Nvidia has also reportedly asked Foxconn to halt related activities.
  • Intel’s stock price rose following SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son’s announcement of a $2 billion strategic investment in the company.
  • Walmart shares fell after the company reported an adjusted EPS of $0.68 for the second quarter, missing analysts’ estimates. However, Walmart’s revenue grew 5% to a higher-than-expected $177.4 billion, enabling the retailer to raise its full-year revenue and profit forecasts.
  • Target shares declined after the retailer posted weak sales and announced a leadership change. Second-quarter store sales fell by 1.9% and the operating income margin dropped to 5.2%, reflecting headwinds from tariffs, market share losses to Walmart and Amazon, order cancellations, and softer discretionary demand. Target reported an EPS of $2.05 on higher-than-expected net sales of $25.21 billion. Chief Operating Officer Michael Fiddelke will succeed outgoing CEO Brian Cornell effective February 1, 2026.
  • TJX posted better-than-expected results, with earnings per share of $1.10 on revenues of $14.4 billion.
  • Hertz announced a strategic partnership with Amazon Autos to sell pre-owned vehicles online in multiple cities, starting with Dallas, Houston, Los Angeles, and Seattle.
  • Home improvement retailer Lowe’s reported adjusted earnings per share of $4.33, beating expectations, on fiscal second-quarter net sales of $23.96 billion.
  • Shares of First Solar declined following President Trump’s announcement of stricter approval processes for wind and solar projects, citing the higher energy costs associated with renewables.
Fixed Income
  • The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index declined this week.
  • The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield edged down to 4.328% and the yield on the 2-year note edged up to 785% over the week.
  • The U.S. Dollar Index appreciated to 98.82 this week.

HCM-030624-063.GWS

August 8, 2025

Equity Markets shrug off Tariff Pressure

Global markets recovered from last week’s tariff slump to post gains this week, despite tariff pressures. President Donald Trump. Trump has suggested a 100% tariff on semi-conductors in addition to the reciprocal tariffs on multiple countries which went into effect this week. Apple has announced its plans to invest $100 billion in the U.S. over the next four years. In global geopolitics, Swiss President Karin Keller-Sutter was unable to secure a trade deal during his visit to the U.S. The U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff’s meeting with President Putin was reported to be productive. Putin is expected to meet Trump in the coming days. The U.A.E. and India have increased their cooperation and trade ties with Russia, despite the threat of tariffs and sanctions. Canada and Mexico also worked to deepen their trade ties and cooperation over the coming months.

Global Updates
  • The MSCI All Country World Index rose this week. Global equity markets were higher, driven by corporate earnings, despite the continued trade uncertainty. Russia’s willingness to negotiate with Russia also raised investor sentiment. The broad-based Japan equity index Topix also crossed the 3,000 benchmark for the first time this week, driven by corporate earnings.
  • Bank of England eased its policy rate to 4% with a quarter percentage cut after a narrow vote. 
  • German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall’s stock price fell after the company reported a less-than-expected $2.8 billion in second quarter sales
  • Softbank’s share price rose after the company posted a higher-than-expected profit of 421.8 billion Yen for the April-June quarter.
  • The stock price of Lloyds rose, after the U.K. supreme court’s ruling on the motor vehicle loan case came in less adverse than expected. 
  • Novo Nordisk’s stock price rose on the news of poor results in Eli Lilly’s clinical trials. 
  • Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) has reported a 26% jump in July’s AI driven sales revenue. 
  • Samsung has announced its plans to manufacture iphone’s image sensors for Apple in Texas. 
  • The oil futures fell slightly driven by OPEC+’s announcement of increased output in September. The market continues to be unable to meet summer demand. Increasing pressure on consumers of Russian oil to restrict purchases has also tightened markets. 
  • The 39.5% tariff on Swiss exports, which is one of the largest refiners of gold, has raised gold futures this week.
U.S. Equity
  • The S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones indices posted gains in the equities market this week, driven by the corporate returns announced this week. The gains were partially offset by the global tariffs on multiple countries which came into effect this week. Semiconductor manufacturers like Nvidia, Broadcom, TSMC and AMD also benefitted from President Trump’s tariff exemption announcement for companies manufacturing in the U.S. 
  • The firing of Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Commissioner Erika McEntarfer by President Trump this week, was widely criticized. The move followed the release of July payroll data indicating a lower-than-expected 73,000 jobs added and a higher unemployment rate of 4.2% in July. The BLS also revised down the earlier reported job gains in May to 19,000 from 144,000 and in June to 14,000 from 147,000. Given the poor job reports the markets have raised the expectation of a rate cut in September. 
  • Apple CEO Tim Cook announced plans to invest $2.5 billion in the expansion of Corning’s Kentucky plant and a $100 billion spend on domestic U.S. companies by 2029. The company also committed to incentivizing its foreign suppliers to purchase U.S. made inputs. 
  • Pharmaceutical company Eli Lilly reported higher-than-expected second quarter adjusted EPS of $6.31 on a 38% growth in revenue to $15.56 billion. The performance was driven by the demand for its metabolism control drugs. 
  • Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) posted a 32% growth in its second quarter revenue of $7.67 billion driven by the 73% growth in their gaming revenue. AMD’s adjusted EPS of $0.48 was in line with expectations.
  • Palantir Technologies posted an adjusted EPS of $0.16 on a higher-than-expected revenue growth of 48% to $1 billion in the second quarter driven by the growing demand for AI software.
  • The maker of ChatGPT, OpenAI, has been reportedly planning to float its shares for a $500 billion valuation through a secondary stock sale of employee held equity.
Fixed Income
  • The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index rose slightly this week.
  • The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield edged up to 4.2440% and the yield on the 2-year note rose to 3.734% over the week.
  • The U.S. Dollar Index declined to 98.25 this week.

HCM-030624-063.GWS

August 1, 2025

Tariffs and central banks break the markets’ upward trend

President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced a trade deal between the U.S. and EU earlier in the week. The pact included investment and energy import conditions, in addition to tariffs. President Trump also announced tariffs on multiple countries including Canada, India, Brazil and South Korea. Additionally, the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) and BoJ kept their policy rates unchanged this week.

In global geopolitics, Russia claimed to have captured new Ukrainian territories. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk expects the Russia-Ukraine war to end shortly. Global pressure on Israel to resolve the Gaza crisis increased. The U.S. senate approved the continued supply of arms to Ukraine. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney expressed his disappointment on the higher tariffs imposed by the U.S. on Canadian goods. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressed the Trump administration’s ire on India and China for the purchase of Russian oil.

Global Updates
  • The MSCI All Country World Index declined this week. Tariff uncertainty and the Fed’s rate decision weighed on global markets. Tariffs were announced for 90 countries by President Trump. The white house, however, clarified that tariff exemptions for refined copper, pharmaceuticals, steel, automobile parts, and specialty metals would continue. 
  • The European Union and U.S. agreed to a trade deal over the weekend. The deal included unrestricted market access for U.S. exports, 15% tariffs on EU’s exports. The 50% levy on EU steel and aluminum will continue. The EU also committed to purchasing $750 billion in energy and investing $600 billion. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and French President Emmanuel Macron have criticized the terms of the agreement.
  • President Trump announced a 50% tariff in Brazil. However, aircraft, energy and orange juice were excluded. Sanctions were also imposed on the judge overseeing former President Jair Bolsonaro’s trial. A 25% tariff was also imposed on India’s exports. 
  • President Trump announced a 15% tariff on South Korean exports. South Korea agreed to open market access for US exports, investing $350 billion and importing $100 billion in energy from the U.S. 
  • Novo Nordisk stock price dropped sharply after the company lowered its full year guidance for sales growth to 8% to 14%, due to a weak growth forecast for its weight loss drug Wegovy in the U.S. The company has named Maziar Mike Doustdar as its new CEO who is set to take over from August 7.
  • Rolls-Royce stock gained after the company raised its guidance for profit to 3.2 billion points and for cash flow to 3.1 billion pounds following a 51% jump in its H1 profit to 1.7 billion pounds due to significant improvements to its engines.
  • UK power company Drax Group posted an 11% lower adjusted profit of $611 million for the first half of 2025, due to lower prices. The group kept its full year guidance unchanged and raised its share buyback program by 450 million pounds.
  • Lufthansa posted a 27% jump in its higher-than-expected second quarter operating profit of $995 million despite global conflicts and economic volatility.
  • Shell posted a higher-than-expected second quarter adjusted earnings of $4.26 billion despite a 32% drop in profits annually due to lower oil prices and losses from operation outages. 
  • The Bank of Japan (BoJ) kept its policy rate steady at 0.5% but hinted at rate hikes later in the year. The BoJ also raised its inflation projections through fiscal 2027, including the underlying inflation in food prices. These announcements led to softening in the yen. 
  • Copper futures fell after President Trump announced a 50% tariff on semi-finished copper products including pipes and wiring. 
  • Oil futures registered weekly gains despite tariff uncertainty and rising OPEC+ production.
U.S. Equity
  • The S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones indices declined this week, interrupting the five weeks of consecutive gains and record highs. Tariff uncertainty and the fed’s hawkish stance weighed on the markets. President Trump announced tariffs on 90 countries and additional tariffs on copper.
  • The Trump administration has indicated that additional tariff decisions on lumber, copper and critical minerals will also be forthcoming in the coming weeks. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has indicated that changes to the government’s semiconductor policies will also be announced. 
  • The Fed held its key policy rate steady citing the inflationary factors in the world and U.S. economy, despite political pressure from the Trump administration in recent weeks. Two board members of the Fed dissented from the rate decision. Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated a continued hawkish stance by the Fed, supported by a resilient economy and stable inflation levels. Markets now estimate the likelihood of a rate cut in September at 50%. 
  • Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) stock gained after the company raised the price of its MI350 AI chip, which is a competitor for Nvidia. 
  • Microsoft stock price rose this week pushing valuation past the $4 trillion mark. The company posted higher than expected fourth fiscal quarter revenue of $76.44 billion and a net income of $27.23 billion. The strong revenue growth was driven by the 26% growth of its intelligent cloud division. Microsoft plans to raise its first fiscal quarter capital expenditure to $30 billion. 
  • Meta reported a 22% growth in its higher-than-estimated second quarter revenue of $47.52 billion and a net income of $18.34 billion. Meta’s 21% growth in advertising revenue to $46.56 billion was attributed to AI driven efficiency by its CEO. Meta has raised its planned capital expenditure for 2025 to $72 billion.
  • Mastercard posted a higher-than-expected adjusted EPS of $4.15 on revenue of $8.13 billion in the second quarter. 
  • Visa’s fiscal third quarter adjusted earnings of $5.83 billion beat estimates, on revenue of $10.17 billion. Visa plans to leverage AI and stablecoins in future products. 
  • Qualcomm’s stock price lagged despite reporting fiscal third-quarter revenue of $10.37 billion and a 20 % growth in its slightly higher-than-estimated adjusted EPS to $2.77. Investors were cautioned due to the lost revenue from Apple’s decision to manufacture modems in house. 
  • Exxon Mobil’s second quarter earnings of $7.1 billion beat estimates, driven by lower costs and increased production despite lower prices.
Fixed Income
  • The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index declined slightly this week.
  • The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield edged down to 4.376% and the yield on the 2-year note rose to 3.949% over the week.
  • The U.S. Dollar Index rose to 99.98 this week, as the USD gained on the Euro and Yen.

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July 25, 2025

Trade deals and corporate earnings push markets up

Global equity markets rose on the back of gains in automobile stocks worldwide spurred by the Japan-U.S. trade agreement a week ahead of the 1st August deadline. The Philippines, Indonesia and Japan have agreed to trade deals with the U.S. this week. Higher than expected corporate earnings also bolstered equity markets this week. In global geopolitics, Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s ruling coalition lost the majority in the parliament’s upper house in the recently concluded election. Prime Minister Ishiba intends to retain power to protect Japan’s national interests. Chinese hackers exploited the vulnerabilities in Microsoft’s SharePoint to access government agency systems across nations, including the U.S. Nuclear Administration. Russia renewed its calls for short ceasefires after its talks with Ukraine could not progress beyond swapping of POWs.

Global Updates
  • The MSCI All Country World Index rose this week bolstered by trade deals. President Trump announced trade deals with the Philippines, Japan and Indonesia this week. The Philippines and Indonesia agreed to a 19% tariff and to open access to their markets at negotiated tariff rates. Japan agreed to invest $550 billion in the U.S. and open access to its automobile sector, agricultural sector, etc in return for a 15% tariff. International automobile stocks gained as investors digested the lower tariffs for automobiles and parts encompassed in the Japan-U.S. trade deal. 
  • The European Central Bank chose to hold interest rates unchanged this week, pausing its rate cutting cycle. The ECB joined the Central Banks worldwide, awaiting clarity on the outcomes of trade negotiations by the U.S. Markets expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) also to hold interest rates steady, but keenly await the subsequent comments and stance of the policymakers. 
  • The United Kingdom signed a free trade agreement with India this week, increasing market access and lowering tariffs. The deal is expected to raise their bilateral trade by $34 billion by 2040. The deal also included worker migration across the two countries. 
  • Ryanair’s stock price rose after reporting a higher-than-expected profit of $954 million in the first fiscal quarter. 
  • BP has announced Albert Manifold as the successor for its chair Helge Lund from 1st October. 
  • European automobile company Stellantis expects a 12.6% fall in H1, 2025 revenue to 74.3 billion euros leading to a 2.3 billion euros in losses.  North American sales volume also fell by 25% over the second quarter. The company attributed this to the U.S. tariffs and business charges. 
  • Oil prices marginally gained this week, powered by trade related optimism due to the U.S. trade agreement with Japan. The EU sanction on Russia had a brief impact on markets.
U.S. Equity
  • The S&P 500 and Nasdaq touched record highs in the fifth consecutive week of equities posting gains. The securities markets were raised by corporate earnings and trade deals with Japan and other countries. 
  • Members of the administration have signaled that the August 1 deadline could be extended for countries engaging in trade negotiations with the U.S. The August 12 deadline for a U.S.-China trade deal could also be extended. 
  • President Trump continued to pressure Fed chair Jerome Powell to ease interest rates this week, through public statements and during a visit to the Fed’s headquarters in Washington. The president also questioned the $2.5 billion renovation of the Fed’s headquarters during the visit. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also called for a review of the Fed’s non-monetary policy decisions. 
  • Alphabet stock rose after the company posted a higher than expected second quarter revenue of $96.43 billion driven by a 32% jump in the sales by Google Cloud. Alphabet also announced a $10 billion expansion in its capital expenditure plans to $85 billion.
  • GE Vernova reported a 11% jump in its second quarter revenue to $9.11 billion, generating an EPS of $1.86. The company has benefited from the growing energy demand worldwide. 
  • AT&T posted a higher-than-expected revenue of $30.8 billion and adjusted EPS of $0.54, driven by the growth in phone subscriptions. The company expects tax savings upto $8 billion over the next two years, due to the tax and spending bill signed by the Trump administration. 
  • Tesla reported a 12% fall in its second quarter revenue to $22.5 billion, generating an adjusted EPS of $0.40. CEO Elon Musk has warned investors to expect declining sales in the following quarters, exacerbated by the cuts in incentives by the Trump administration.
  • IBM’s stock price fell this week despite a higher-than-expected revenue of $16.98 billion and adjusted EPS of $2.8, driven by the demand for its mainframes and consulting services. Investors were wary of the softening in software sales by the company. 
  • Honeywell posted a 8.1% growth in its quarterly revenue to $10.35 billion and adjusted EPS of $2.75. The company’s growth was driven by its aerospace division, due to renewed demand from Boeing and Airbus. Honeywell has raised its full year revenue and profit estimates. 
  • President Trump announced a $44 billion joint venture with Japan to supply Alaskan LNG to Asia.
  • American trading firm Jane Street was permitted by India’s trading regulatory authority to resume trading in India. 
  • The Wall Street Journal reported that the highly publicized Stargate project would commence with the construction of a data center in Ohio by the year end. The $500 billion partnership by Oracle, OpenAI and SoftBank to develop AI infrastructure in the U.S., has lagged due to lack of agreement between the companies.
Fixed Income
  • The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index rose slightly this week.
  • The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield edged down to 4.404% and the yield on the 2-year note rose to 3.921% over the week, following the rally in U.S. treasuries and European sovereign bonds.
  • The U.S. Dollar Index declined to 97.53 this week weighed down by trade negotiations and an appreciating Japanese Yen.

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July 18, 2025

Positive data and corporate earnings raises markets to record highs

Global equity markets recovered to register gains after an initial decline this week. US equities continued to rise for the fourth consecutive week. with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices touching record highs. Earlier the equity markets had lagged due to inflation data and apprehensions of Fed Chair Jerome Powell being dismissed, which was later refuted by President Trump. The markets were later encouraged by positive economic data and strong corporate outcomes from the previous quarter. 

Japan goes to a closely run elections this weekend, where Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s ruling coalition is at risk of losing its majority. Tensions in the middle east reemerged this week, after unclaimed drones attacked oilfields in Iraq. Russia also escalated the Ukraine conflict with drones and missile strikes targeting key infrastructure, including energy. President Trump threatened further sanctions on Russia and its trading partners to bring the warring countries to the negotiating table.

Global Updates
  • The MSCI All Country World Index rose slightly after an initial decline earlier in the week. International securities tracked U.S. markets through the week, registering gains by the end of the week. Japan was the exception, registering a decline due to electoral uncertainty. 
  • Japan’s 10-year bond yield rose to 1.595%, the highest since 2008, ahead of the national elections in Japan. Investors are apprehensive of the tax cuts promised by the opposition and the country’s fiscal health. The yields later declined following the news of a decline in headline inflation marginally cooling to 3.3% driven by the easing in inflation in rice prices. 
  • Swiss engineering firm ABB has reported a 37% surge in new orders from the U.S. The AI driven demand for its products led to a 9% jump in operating income to $1.7 billion and a 8% rise in revenues to $8.9 billion. 
  • Swiss pharmaceutical company Novartis posted a larger-than-expected 26% growth in its net income to $4.02 billion in the second quarter. The company also raised its full-year guidance and announced a $10 billion  share buyback program. 
  • Stellantis will be discontinuing its hydrogen fuel cell technology program and hydrogen fueled cars launch due to capital required and lack of consumer interest. 
  • Britain’s Financial Conduct Authority has fined Barclays $ 56 million for its failure to regulate and block money laundering operations.  
  • Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company posted a 61% jump in second-quarter profits to a record EPS of 15.36 New Taiwan Dollars (NT$) on revenue of NT$ 933.8 billion. TSMC now estimates a third quarter revenue between $31.8 billion to $33 billion.
  • China reported a higher-than-expected 5.2% GDP growth over the second quarter spurred by technology, EVs, services and growth in consumption. However, the economy continues to be vulnerable to the property sector’s struggles with new home prices dropping in June, at the fastest rate this year.  China is increasingly hopeful of export growth with a U.S. trade deal on the horizon. 
  • China has threatened to scuttle BlackRock’s Panama ports deal with C.K. Hutchison if state owned Chinese shipping company Cosco is not made a party to the takeover deal.
  • Conflict risk to oil supplies from the middle east reemerged after drones were used to attack oil fields in Iraq, halving the regions supplies. This followed the Houthi attack on cargo ships last week. Iran backed militias are suspected for leading the as yet unclaimed attacks. These events have reversed the downward trend in oil prices earlier this week due to increased oil supplies.
  • Lithium prices jumped internationally after Chinese company Zangge halted mining operations in Qinghai. China also imposed export controls on lithium battery exports to protect the technology.
U.S. Equity
  • The S&P 500 and Nasdaq touched record highs in the fourth consecutive week of equities posting gains. Investors were enthused by the higher-than-expected retail sales growth of 0.6% in June, following the slowdown in April and May. The decline in unemployment claims was also a positive influence. Earlier this week, inflation data showed a rise in consumer price inflation to 2.7% in June. Core inflation also rose to 2.9%. This was attributed to rising gas, groceries, power and medical prices.  
  • The U.S. Department of Labor reported 7,000 less jobless claims in the week ending July 12th, the fifth week of decline in jobless claims, to 221,000 claims. The better-than-expected data improved market sentiments. 
  • The Genius Act, which encompasses the cryptocurrency regulatory framework has been passed by the U.S. House of Representatives and awaits the President’s signature. 
  • Jet-engine manufacturer, GE Aerospace raised its full-year guidance following a better-than-expected 21% jump in its second quarter revenue to $11.02 billion, generating an EPS of $1.66.
  • PepsiCo. posted a higher-than-expected sales revenue of $22.73 billion with an EPS of $2.12 for the quarter ending June 30th. The company reaffirmed its full-year outlook following the results.
  • Johnson  & Johnson stock gained after the company reported a 5.8% growth in sales revenue to $23.74 billion, generating an EPS of $2.77. The company raised its full-year sales guidance to the $93.2 to $93.6 billion range. 
  • BlackRock reported a record $12.5 trillion in assets under management by the firm.
  • Nvidia stock gained after the company announced a resumption in the supply of H20 AI chips to China. Super Micro Computer and AMD also benefitted from the spillover effects of this decision.
Fixed Income
  • The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index declined this week.
  • The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.439% and the yield on the 2-year note was slightly lower at 3.892% over the week. 
  • The U.S. Dollar Index rose slightly to 98.43 this week bolstered by encouraging economic data.

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