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February 20, 2026

Easing Inflation and AI Funding Surge amid Geopolitical Headwinds

Weekly Market Movers — Key Highlights
  • Rising U.S.-Iran tensions pushed oil to 2025 highs.
  • Redemption halt at Blue Owl Capital triggered a selloff in private credit.
  • OpenAI neared a $100 billion funding round—boosting its valuation past $850 billion—while Meta and Nvidia entered a long-term AI infrastructure partnership.
  • Inflation cooled significantly across major economies, with Japan falling below its 2% target (1.5%) 
  • While 80% of S&P 500 companies beat estimates, Walmart and Palo Alto Networks saw shares slip due to cautious forward guidance.
  • Federal Reserve minutes revealed internal debate over the timing of rate cuts, with members differing over prioritizing labor-market resilience vs sustained disinflation.

Global equity markets experienced volatility as the MSCI All Country World Index rose despite U.S.-Iran tensions and the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance. International inflation rates declined in Japan, the UK, and Canada, while the U.S. housing market and manufacturing showed varied performance ahead of PCE inflation data. Corporate news included OpenAI’s $100 billion funding round and earnings reports from Deere & Co. and Palo Alto Networks, contrasting with challenges for Walmart and private credit firms like Blue Owl Capital.

In global geopolitics, President Trump indicated that the Iran-U.S. standoff could possibly escalate into an armed conflict, even as nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran continue. Earlier in the week the two countries had agreed on the guidelines for the continued talks between the two countries. The U.S. led Ukraine-Russia talks in Geneva were characterized as ‘difficult’ by Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky and Russia’s chief negotiator Vladimir Medinsky.

Global Updates
  • The MSCI All Country World Index rose over the week despite a short decline on Thursday. Rising U.S. Iran tensions and the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve (Fed) weighed on global markets. The selloff in private credit following Blue Owl Capital halt on redemptions also adversely impacted global markets. The Fed’s stance also raised investor concerns regarding the PCE inflation report due on Friday. China, Hong Kong and Taiwan’s markets remained closed through the week for the Lunar New Year Holiday, while Korean markets reopened mid-week. 
  • The headline inflation rate in Japan declined to 1.5% in January, below the Bank of Japan’s 2% target rate for the first time since March 2022. The decline was driven by falling food, meat and petroleum product prices.
  • UK inflation eased to 3% in January, down from 3.4% in December, driven by lower food, fuel and airfare prices. The decline in inflation has raised expectations of a potential rate cut in March. U.K. retail sales rose by 1.8% month-over-month and 4.5% annually in January due to increased economic activity. The public sector also posted a surplus of $40.8 billion in January. 
  • Canada’s annual inflation rate declined to 2.3% in January, from 2.4% in December, due to declining gasoline prices. 
  • South Korea’s Kospi index crossed the 5,800 market this week, driven by an ally in chip and defense stocks.
  • Prime Minister Carney announced Canada’s first defence industrial strategy, which plans to increase spending and investment in domestic defense industries, an initiative expected to generate approximately 125,000 jobs and raise annual revenues of the industry to $40 billion.
  • Anglo American reported adjusted core earnings of $6.4 billion in 2025, driven by strong performance in copper and premium iron ore, along with $1.8 billion in cost savings. However, the company also posted a $3.7 billion net loss, primarily due to a $2.3 billion pre-tax impairment on its De Beers diamond unit amid difficult market conditions.
  • German chemical company Bayer’s stock price dragged, following a $7.25 billion settlement proposal in Roundup lawsuit. 
  • The escalating tensions between the United States and Iran have driven oil prices to their highest levels since August, 2025. Earlier this week, Iran temporarily closed portions of the Strait of Hormuz for military exercises, reigniting concerns about potential disruptions to global energy markets, given that more than 30% of the world’s crude oil shipments pass through the strait.
U.S. Equity
  • U.S. equity markets rallied early in the holiday shortened trading week, recovering from the AI driven disruptions in the previous week. However, markets declined on Thursday, leading to a softer rise in broad market indices over the week. The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average index edged lower over the week. Growing geopolitical tensions and the decline in Amazon shares dragged down market performance. 
  • With 75% of S&P 500 companies having reported earnings and revenue outcomes from the previous quarter, 80% have exceeded their consensus earnings‑per‑share estimates, and 60% have issued higher forward guidance.
  • New orders for US-manufactured durable goods fell by a less-than-expected 1.4% in December 2025, from the 5.4% growth in November.
  • Housing starts in the U.S. rose by 6.2% in December 2025 to 1.40 million units exceeding previous estimates. 
  • Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index and the fourth‑quarter U.S. GDP is scheduled for release on Friday. Consensus estimations indicate headline PCE to rise 2.8% year over year and core PCE to increase 3%.
  • The minutes from the Federal Reserve’s January meeting pointed to a growing divergence within the Committee over the appropriate policy trajectory. A subset of policymakers underscored the importance of preserving labor‑market resilience. Conversely, others advocated maintaining a cautious stance, arguing that clearer and more sustained evidence of disinflation is essential for considering any policy adjustments. U.S. inflation continues to exceed the central bank’s 2% target rate.
  • Walmart shares slipped after the retailer’s full‑year earnings guidance of adjusted EPS in the $2.75 to $2.85 range fell short of expectations, overshadowing its stronger‑than‑anticipated fourth‑quarter results. Walmart reported $0.74 adjusted EPS in the fiscal fourth quarter on a revenue of $190.66 billion. Walmart’s annual revenue of $713.2 billion for the recent fiscal year fell short of Amazon’s annual revenue of $716.9 billion for the first time.
  • Alternative asset manager Blue Owl Capital announced tightening in investor liquidity and the sale of $1.4 billion in loans. Shares of Blue Owl Capital, Blackstone and Apollo Global Management declined following the announcement. 
  • OpenAI has reportedly finalized a $100B deal in its latest funding round, raising the company’s valuation above $850 billion.
  • Farm and construction equipment manufacturing company Deere & Co. reported 13% annual growth in its fiscal first quarter revenue to $9.61 billion and an EPS of $2.42 surpassing expectations. The company raised its full year net income guidance to the $4.5 billion and $5 billion range.
  •  Palo Alto Networks posted a higher-than-expected adjusted EPS of $1.03 on 15% annual growth in its fiscal second quarter revenue to $2.59 billion. The company’s stock price, however, declined after it lowered its adjusted earnings guidance for the full fiscal year to the $3.65 to $3.70 range. 
  • President Trump announced plans for Japan to invest USD 36 billion in U.S. energy and industrial projects in the first phase of a broader USD 550 billion investment commitment through 2029.
  • Berkshire Hathaway trimmed its Amazon holdings by more than 75% during the fourth quarter, according to its filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Meta and Nvidia announced a long‑term partnership focused on AI infrastructure, covering the supply of CPUs, GPUs, and networking technologies to Meta.
Fixed Income
  • The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index edged lower over the week. 
  • The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield edged up to 4.075% and the yield on the 2-year note rose to 3.47% over the week.
  • The U.S. Dollar Index rose to 97.93 over the week.

HCM-030624-063.GWS

February 13, 2026

Choppy markets as investors retreat to value

Weekly Market Movers — Key Highlights
  • Global equities were mixed, giving up early gains as investors rotated out of technology stocks.
  • Dow hit record highs early in the week before tech‑driven weakness pulled major indices lower.
  • Labor data was mixed—unemployment dipped to 4.3% and job gains exceeded forecasts, while jobless claims remained elevated.
  • Corporate earnings were varied, with strong revenue reports from Robinhood, AppLovin, Cisco, and Apollo, though market reactions differed based on margins and competitive pressures.
  • Healthcare stocks outperformed, with Novocure and Novo Nordisk rising on regulatory approvals and shifts in industry dynamics.

Global equities were mixed this week, with the MSCI ACWI reversing early gains as investors rotated out of technology stocks. U.S. markets mirrored this trend, as tech‑led weakness pulled major indices lower despite the Dow briefly touching record highs. Economic data was mixed: unemployment edged down to 4.3% and January job gains beat forecasts, while weekly jobless claims remained elevated and existing home sales fell sharply. Retail sales held steady, reflecting inflationary pressures and softer consumer sentiment. Corporate earnings were varied—Robinhood, AppLovin, Cisco, and Apollo reported strong revenue figures, though market reactions differed based on margins and competitive outlooks. In healthcare, Novocure and Novo Nordisk saw stock gains on regulatory approvals and industry shifts. 

In global geopolitics, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s party secured a sweeping victory in the snap election. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy conditionalized the possibility of holding elections on a ceasefire with Russia. President Trump continued to urge Iran to negotiate with the U.S., even as U.S. troop deployments to the middle east continued.

Global Updates
  • The MSCI All Country World Index initially rose and later declined over the week as investors pulled back from technology stocks. 
  • France’s economy is expected to grow 0.2%–0.3% in Q1, in line with the Bank of France’s 1% annual growth forecast, Governor Villeroy de Galhau said on Thursday.
  • Welspun Living reported a decline in its quarterly profits as its margins were pressured by a slowdown in exports following U.S. tariffs.
  • Siemens Energy has reported a net profit of approximately £746 million for the fiscal first quarter.
  • Hermès reported stronger‑than‑expected fourth‑quarter revenue, driven by robust demand in the U.S. and Japan for its high‑end handbags.
  • Thyssenkrupp has set aside $477 million to cover extensive job cuts in its steel unit, as it continues negotiations with India’s Jindal Steel International over a potential sale of the division.
  • German submarine maker TKMS reported a record $22 billion order backlog and raised its 2026 sales outlook on Wednesday, driven by rising demand for warships amid growing geopolitical tensions.
  • Mercedes‑Benz said that profit margins in its autos division may shrink further this year, reflecting pressure from high costs, a weak Chinese market, and global tariffs.
  • TotalEnergies will cut its first‑quarter share buybacks by half but remains focused on expanding its oil and gas reserves, as weak energy prices offset strong refining profits and gains from selling stakes in renewable assets.
  • The UAE central bank has joined Hong Kong’s Central Moneymarkets Unit (CMU) debt depository, giving Middle Eastern investors easier access to Chinese assets.
  • Hindustan Unilever’s quarterly profit fell 15% on Thursday, hit by margin pressures and a one‑off cost from India’s new labour codes, sending its shares down over 4%.
  • The UK has selected HSBC’s blockchain platform to run its pilot for tokenized government bonds, a move that positions Britain ahead of other G7 nations in testing blockchain‑based sovereign debt.
  • Russian oil transit to Eastern Europe through the Ukrainian section of the Druzhba pipeline has been halted since January 27 following a Russian attack, Ukraine’s foreign ministry said on Thursday.
  • Russia’s overnight drone and missile strikes severely damaged Ukraine’s energy system on Thursday, cutting heat, power, and water in several cities. In Odesa alone, around 300,000 people lost electricity and water, officials said.
  • U.K. Defence Minister John Healey said that Britain has allocated $205 million to the Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List initiative to provide Ukraine with U.S. made weapons.
U.S. Equity
  • U.S. equity markets rotated out of technology stocks over the week, leading to a significant decline in broad market indices. The blue chip Dow Jones Industrial Average index touched record highs early in the week, after crossing the 50,000 mark on Friday last week. But the Dow declined later in the week, as fears of AI disruption led to a selloff in technology stocks.
  • The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a decline in the unemployment rate from 4.4% in December to 4.3% in January. The U.S. economy added 130,000 jobs in January, surpassing initial forecasts.
  • Weekly jobless claims declined by 5,000 to 227,000 for the week ended February 7, which was higher than expected. 
  • Existing home sales were below expectations in January declining by 8.4% to 3.91 million in January, from 4.35 million in December. The housing market was weighed down by inflated prices, low inventories and cooling consumer confidence. 
  • Census Bureau data showed that U.S. retail sales were in line at 0.6% in December despite a strong start to the holiday shopping season, due to inflation, tariffs and weather.
  • Robinhood reported 27% growth in fourth quarter revenue to $1.28 billion and diluted EPS of $ 0.66. The brokerage platform’s Crypto revenue of $221 million and options revenue at $314 million were however below expectations. Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev anticipates a ‘market supercycle’ in 2026, which could drive up volumes. 
  • AppLovin reported fourth-quarter EPS of $3.24 on a revenue of $1.66 billion driven by advertising and AI powered tools. However, the marketing platform’s stock price fell as the market anticipated increased competition. 
  • Apple stock declined this week after the Federal Trade Commission cautioned the company for misrepresenting its terms of service and unduly favoring left‑wing publishers.
  • Cisco reported a larger-than-expected second quarter EPS of $0.80, on a 10% higher revenue of $15.3 billion due to AI-driven demand for its networking products. On the other hand, Cisco stock dragged as its adjusted gross margin declined to 67.5% and is projected to decline to 66.5% driven by higher memory costs.
  • Apollo Global Management reported fourth quarter revenue of $9.86 billion and a record $300 billion originations, $225 billion inflows in 2025, which raised the company’s assets under management (AUM) to $938 billion
  • Swiss pharmaceutical firm Novocure stock rallied following the approval of its Optune Pax treatment for pancreatic cancer by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.
  • Novo Nordisk’s stock price rose this week after Hims & Hers Health announced a rollback of its plans to offer weight loss pills, under pressure from the FDA.
Fixed Income
  • The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index edged up over the week. Bond yields rose this week as markets scaled back their expectations for fewer near‑term rate cuts, with the likelihood of a rate cut by the U.S. Fed in March at 94%.
  • The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield declined to 4.113% and the yield on the 2-year note edged lower to 3.472% over the week.
  • The U.S. Dollar Index declined to 97.05 over the week, as global markets reacted to the electoral outcomes in Japan and Chinese regulators advising reduced exposure to U.S. treasuries.

HCM-030624-063.GWS

February 6, 2026

Equities Retreat as AI Capex Concerns and Fed Leadership Shift Take Center Stage

Weekly Market Movers — Key Highlights
  • Global equities pulled back as technology stocks weighed on major indices, while 
  • The dollar strengthened on solid U.S. data. 
  • Silver outperformed gold following a sharp earlier decline. 
  • President Donald Trump signed a $1.2 trillion government funding bill to end the partial government shutdown
  • The ECB and BoE held rates steady at 2% and 3.75%, respectively.
  • Amazon and Alphabet shares slid after projecting increased capex in 2026.
  • Technology stocks were weighed down by the release of Anthropic’s AI tool.

Global equities detracted with technology names driving a broad pullback across major U.S. benchmarks. The dollar strengthened following fresh U.S. economic data, while in precious metals, silver outperformed gold as it rebounded from its recent sharp decline. President Donald Trump signed a $1.2 trillion government funding bill to formally end the partial government shutdown and reopen federal agencies. Kevin Warsh’s nomination to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair impacted investor sentiments. The release of Anthropic’s AI assistant and projections of increased capital expenditures on AI infrastructure has weighed on technology stocks. In global geopolitics, US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Secretary of State Marco Rubio engaged in talks with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Muscat. The US demanded a total freeze on uranium enrichment, while Iran insisted on the removal of American military assets from the region.

Global Updates
  • The MSCI All Country World Index declined as investors pulled back from technology stocks and re‑evaluated company valuations after several years of strong growth. 
  • The European Central Bank kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2% on Thursday, while the Bank of England also held steady, maintaining its policy rate at 3.75%.
  • Rheinmetall shares fell after the company signaled weaker‑than‑expected preliminary guidance for 2026 during a call with investors and analysts.
  • Volvo shares plummeted after fourth‑quarter operating income plunged 68% to about $200 million, dragged down by tariffs, weak demand, and currency headwinds.
  • Shell shares slipped after fourth‑quarter adjusted earnings came in at $3.26 billion, missing the $3.53 billion analyst forecast amid weaker crude prices.
  • Toyota appointed its CFO Kenta Kon — a close ally of Chairman Akio Toyoda — as its next CEO, as the automaker faces intensifying competition from rapidly advancing Chinese rivals.
  • German exports rose 4% in December from the prior month, outperforming expectations for a 1% increase.
  • British house prices rose 0.7% in January, signaling a housing‑market rebound after December’s 0.5% decline and November’s budget measures.
  • A subsidiary of Chinese lithium-ion battery maker Sunwoda Electronic subsidiary has reached a settlement with Geely’s battery unit Vremt, which had sued over defective battery cells.
  • Chinese automaker Seres that its Aito EV brand has signed a strategic partnership with Abu Dhabi‑based Performance Plus Motors to support its expansion into the Middle East.
U.S. Equity
  • U.S. equity markets declined the week, indicated by the fall in the broader market indices. The S&P, Nasdaq and the blue-chip Dow Jones index declined over the week due to a mix of disappointing big tech corporate earnings, projections of large capital expenditures in 2026, Anthropic’s AI tool, and market reactions to U.S. politics and macroeconomic indicators. 
  • President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair. Markets reacted adversely to Warsh’s hawkish stance which weighed on equity markets while strengthening the US Dollar and Treasury yields.
  • The Challenger, Gray & Christmas jobless claims data, rose to an larger-than-expected 231,000 for the week ending January 31. The 108,000 layoffs in January also lowered investor sentiment. The Bureau of Labor Statistics rescheduled the release of the US jobs report to 11th February due to the government shutdown. The U.S. job openings are estimated to have declined to 6.54 million in December, the loss in five years. 
  • Investors’ concerns of increased capital expenditure by Alphabet in the $175 billion to $185 billion range on AI in 2026 (nearly double the capex in 2025), led to a decline in the company’s stock price. Alphabet posted a higher-than-expected fourth-quarter revenue of $113.83 billion driven by strong revenue from its cloud division ($17.66 billion) and youtube advertising ($11.38 billion). 
  • Qualcomm reported a 5% annual growth in its fiscal first-quarter sales revenue to $12.25 billion, with an adjusted EPS of $3.50. However, the projected lower-than-expected sales revenue of $10.2 billion to $11 billion in the second quarter, with an adjusted EPS in the $2.45 to $2.65 range disappointed investors. 
  • Amazon posted a lower-than-expected EPS of $1.95 in the fourth quarter on revenue of $213.39 billion, driven by a strong 24% growth in its Amazon Web Services revenue to $35.58 billion and advertising revenue of $21.32 billion. Stock price declined due to weak earnings and a projected capital expenditure of $200 billion in 2026 on AI infrastructure. 
  • The release of Anthropic’s AI tool to manage complex workflows in legal research and analytics, led to a selloff in technology stocks this week including Thomson Reuters, Salesforce, LegalZoom, etc. 
  • Bloomberg reported that the Trump administration is considering the construction of affordable housing, under a plan pitched by Lennar and Taylor Morrison Home Corp.
  • Eli Lilly stock price rose after posting profit per share of $7.54 on a revenue of $19.3 billion. Eli also projected 25% higher revenue in 2026 and a profit per share in the $33.50 – $35 range.
Fixed Income
  • The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index edged up over the week.
  • The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield edged lower to 4.21% and the yield on the 2-year note declined to 3.483% over the week.
  • The U.S. Dollar Index rose slightly to 97.84 over the week, primarily due to a risk of rotation into safe-haven assets and the nomination of a new Federal Reserve Chair along with a depreciation of the Japanese Yen.

HCM-030624-063.GWS

January 30, 2026

Markets Balance Central Bank decisions, Earnings, and Global Geopolitics

Weekly Market Movers — Key Highlights
  • Global equities rose, tracking gains in U.S. markets.
  • The U.S. Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 3.5%–3.75% in its first 2026 meeting.
  • Mixed tech earnings drove volatility: Microsoft and Intel underperformed, while Meta and Apple outperformed.
  • Prices for gold and silver surged on safe-haven demand.
  • Oil prices increased due to fears of supply disruptions linked to rising geopolitical tensions.
  • President Trump threatened higher tariffs on Canada over its potential trade agreement with China.
  • India and the European Union signed a major trade agreement, creating a $27 trillion market.

Global equities rose over the week, closely tracking U.S. equity markets. Influenced by the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, major tech company earnings reports, and geopolitical factors. In its first meeting of 2026, the U.S. central bank held its key interest rate steady in the 3.5% to 3.75% range, balancing its twin mandates of managing inflation and encouraging growth. Mixed corporate earnings influenced market volatility, driven by the underperformance of Microsoft and Intel and the strong performance by Meta and Apple. Commodities’ prices surged with safe-haven demand for gold and silver and concerns of supply constraints for oil, due to growing concerns for geopolitical risks. The growing AI-driven demand for chips drove up South Korea’s Kospi due to the strong performance by Samsung and SK Hynix in the previous quarter. 

In global geopolitics, the growing fears of a U.S. government shutdown partially eased, after the White House and senate democrats negotiated a deal to fund the DHS for the two weeks. However, a shutdown is still possible. President Trump threatened to impose higher tariffs if Canada signs a trade agreement with China, followed up by the possible decertification of Canadian jets and a 50% aircraft tariff. India and the European Union signed a trade deal creating a $27 trillion market. President Trump urged Iran to engage in dialogue over its nuclear program, while also increasing the American military presence in the region. Israel and Hamas held the final exchange of captives, as the ceasefire agreement entered the second phase.

Global Updates
  • The MSCI All Country World Index rose earlier the week following strong earnings. However, global equities declined slightly later in the week, due to underwhelming earning reports and growing geopolitical confrontations. 
  • SAP reported growth in its fourth quarter operating profit of 2.6 billion euros on a revenue of 9.7 billion. However, the company’s weaker-than-expected 26% growth in its cloud contract backlog, which is expected to further decrease in 2026, disappointed investors.
  • Swiss multinational engineering group ABB reported a strong 36% jump in fourth quarter orders to $10.3 billion and a 13% higher revenue of $9.1 billion. ABB raised its dividend to 0.94 per share and $2 billion share buyback program.  
  • Deutsche Bank’s fourth-quarter net profits of 1.3 billion euros beat expectations, on a revenue of 7.73 billion euros. The bank also announced plans of a 1 billion euros share buyback program, as part of a 2.9 billion capital distribution package.
  • China has permitted its domestic companies to purchase H200 chips from Nvidia, which it had earlier blocked.
  • Samsung reported a record 200% growth in its fourth quarter profits of 20.1 trillion Korean won on a revenue of 93.8 trillion won ($65.58 billion). The company attributed its performance to strong demand for AI servers and a persistent memory chip shortage.
  • SK Hynix announced dividends of 1 trillion won, after reporting a record 19.17 trillion won profit on a 66% higher revenue of 32.827 trillion won in the fourth quarter. 
  • Spot Gold prices rose to a record high of $5,500 per ounce following the U.S. Fed’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged.
  • Oil prices touched four-month highs due to a weak dollar and elevated supply concerns induced by the U.S. winter storm and the disruptions in Kazakhstan’s oil exports.
U.S. Equity
  • U.S. equity markets rose over the week, with the S&P 500 briefly crossing the 7,000 mark. The blue-chip Dow Jones index however fell over the week due to Microsoft’s underwhelming performance. 
  • The Federal Open Market Committee voted 10-2 this week, to keep its policy rate unchanged in the 3.5% to 3.75% range. The committee indicated an increased prioritization of the cooling job market over inflation risks in its future decisions. 
  • President Donald Trump has announced former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh as his nomination for the next chair of the central bank
  • Microsoft reported a higher-than-expected adjusted EPS of $4.14 on a 16.7% annual growth in revenue to $81.27 billion for its fiscal second quarter. Microsoft issued guidance in the $80.65 billion to $81.75 billion range for its fiscal third-quarter revenue. The company reported a slight slowdown in cloud services revenue growth and a higher capital expenditure in the fiscal second quarter. 
  • Meta reported a higher-than-expected EPS of $8.88 on revenue of $59.9 billion, over the fourth quarter. Meta also reported a 24% growth in advertising revenue over the fourth quarter. The company anticipates a capital expenditure in the $115 billion to $135 billion range on AI in 2026.
  • Apple reported a higher-than-expected net income of $42.1 billion on a 16% higher revenue of 143.8 billion in the fiscal first quarter. Apple also estimated a 13% to 16% growth in revenue over the current quarter to the $107.8 billion-$110.66 billion range. 
  • Caterpillar reported an adjusted EPS of $5.16 on a 18% higher revenue of $19.1 billion over the fourth quarter, driven by the rising demand for machinery and equipment in the construction of AI data centers.
  • UnitedHealth reported an adjusted EPS of $2.11 on a lower-than-expected fourth-quarter revenue of $113.2 billion. The company’s stock had lagged earlier in the week following the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services proposal of raising Medicare Advantage payment rates by a lower-than-expected 0.09%.
  • Micron Technology announced its plan to invest $24 billion in a wafer fabrication facility in Singapore for which it has commenced due to the strong demand for its chips.
Fixed Income
  • The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index edged up over the week.
  • The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield edged up to 4.269% and the yield on the 2-year note edged lower to 3.572% over the week.
  • The U.S. Dollar Index declined to 96.52 over the week, following the selloff in Japanese bond market and President Trump’s comments regarding strength of the dollar. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent later denied the possibility of a Japanese Yen intervention by the U.S.

HCM-030624-063.GWS

January 23, 2026

Rising tensions and volatile times ahead

Global markets were rattled by renewed geopolitical tensions, trade threats, and mixed economic signals. Equities softened, safe-haven assets surged, and policy uncertainty continued to weigh on investor sentiment. Meanwhile, select corporate earnings and strategic deals shaped U.S. equity movements, while fixed income markets strengthened. Investors turned from risk to traditional safe-haven assets, with gold and silver surging to fresh records as the Swiss franc gained. 

Russia is set to participate in security discussions with the United States and Ukraine in Abu Dhabi today. Following a late-night meeting between President Vladimir Putin and a delegation of three U.S. envoys, Moscow cautioned that any lasting peace agreement would remain unattainable unless territorial disputes are addressed. The U.S. is repositioning key military assets, including an aircraft carrier and fighter jets, across the Middle East amid escalating tensions with Iran following mass casualties during recent protests in the country. The situation is further complicated by mixed signals from President Trump, while Israel prepares for the possibility of an unexpected conflict.

Weekly Market Movers — Key Highlights
  • Global equities fell sharply after President Trump threatened 10% tariffs on several European countries in his pursuit of Greenland, triggering a flight to safety and record highs in gold and silver.
  • Middle East tensions escalated, with the U.S. redeploying major military assets and renewed threats against Iran lifting oil prices.
  • Intel plunged after forecasting weaker-than-expected revenue and struggling to meet surging AI server-chip demand.
  • Volkswagen shares jumped as the automaker reported stronger-than-expected 2025 automotive cash flow.
  • Czechoslovak Group surged 32% on debut after a record-breaking defense IPO, valuing the firm at over $29B.
Global Updates
  • The MSCI All Country World Index fell following President Trump’s threat to hit several European countries with 10% tariffs to pressure Denmark into selling Greenland. 
  • Euro zone consumer confidence improved in January, rising 0.8 points from December.
  • Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Index surged to 59.6 in January, the highest level since August 2021, reflecting improved expectations for Germany’s economic outlook.
  • UK retail sales rose unexpectedly in December, driven by strong online demand, marking the first monthly increase since September and signaling momentum after Reeves’ budget.
  • Natural gas prices surged due to rising demand driven by an unexpected Arctic cold front extending till Florida.
  • China’s government has permitted companies to purchase Nvidia’s H20 chips.  
  • Japan’s annual inflation rate eased to 2.1% in December 2025, down from 2.9% November.
  • Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney criticized President Trump’s global strategy and urged middle powers to unite in response to a weakening international order in his speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos.
  • Bank of Japan maintained Hawkish Inflation Outlook, Citing Yen Weakness and Signalling Further Rate Hikes Amid Heightened Political Sensitivity.
  • Oil prices rebounded after President Trump renewed threats against Iran, heightening fears of potential military action and possible disruptions to Middle East supply routes.
  • Volkswagen shares surged after the automaker reported stronger‑than‑expected 2025 net cash flow in its automotive division.
  • Czechoslovak Group’s shares surged up to 32% on debut after a record defence IPO, valuing the firm at about $29.3 billion and raising roughly $4.45 billion.
  • Shell is considering selling its Vaca Muerta shale assets in Argentina, exploring partial or full divestment as it evaluates interest from buyers amid volatile valuations.
U.S. Equity
  • U.S. stocks weakened this week as disappointing corporate earnings combined with fallout from President Trump’s Greenland push intensified tensions with Europe and revived trade‑war concerns. 
  • President Trump withdrew his invitation for Canada to join his Board of Peace initiative, halting its planned participation in the conflict‑resolution effort.
  • President Trump filed a $5 billion lawsuit against JPMorgan Chase and CEO Jamie Dimon, alleging politically motivated account closures amounted to debanking.
  • President Trump stated that he has concluded interviews for the position of Federal Reserve chair and affirmed that he has already identified his preferred candidate.
  • U.S. control over Venezuela’s oil exports has trapped shipments intended for Chinese debt repayment.
  • U.S.-Indonesia trade talks could quadruple annual bilateral commerce to about $160 billion, Indonesia’s business chamber says, with an agreement possibly finalized next month. The US is actively seeking to re-negotiate its defense agreement with Denmark to remove the limits on its military presence in Greenland. 
  • Intel shares plunged after the company projected weaker‑than‑expected quarterly revenue and profit, citing difficulty meeting AI server‑chip demand.
  • U.S. and Taiwan finalized a trade deal under which Taiwanese firms will invest $250 billion to expand U.S. semiconductor, energy, and AI production.
  • TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanné said he expects the EU to soften future sustainable aviation fuel mandates, mirroring its retreat from the 2035 combustion‑engine ban.
  • Qatar Investment Authority and Goldman Sachs signed a preliminary pact to deepen their partnership, outlining plans for $25 billion in Goldman‑managed vehicles and co‑investment ventures.
  • Netflix shares declined as investors scrutinized the company’s fourth‑quarter earnings alongside reports of its bid to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery.
  • United Airlines stock rallied after the company’s fourth‑quarter earnings and guidance beat expectations.
  • A U.S. government shutdown is looming as lawmakers approach the January 30 deadline, with Congress required to pass at least six funding bills to avert a partial closure.
Fixed Income
  • The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index advanced over the week.
  • The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose up to 4.251% and the yield on the 2-year note rose to 3.614% over the week.
  • The U.S. Dollar Index fell to 98.33 over the week.

HCM-030624-063.GWS

January 16, 2026

Geopolitics and Policy Uncertainty Drag Global Markets Lower

Global equities declined over the week, after global geopolitics weighed on investor sentiments. President Donald Trump warned European countries of additional tariffs, if they continued to hinder American efforts to purchase Greenland. Banks and financial services stocks also slid during the week, after U.S. President Donald Trump called for a one-year cap on credit card interest rates at 10%. The U.S. Department of Justice issued grand jury subpoenas to Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell. The U.S. financial sector reported mixed fourth quarter results. The Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. posted record fourth quarter profits.

In global geopolitics, President Trump announced the creation of a Board of Peace, to administer the Gaza Strip. However Israeli foreign minister Gideon Sa’ar met with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, to raise Israel’s concerns directly with the Trump administration, as the announcement was made without Israel’s coordination and conflicts with Israeli government policy. Ukraine reported that Kyiv is operating with only half of its required electricity, after sustained Russian strikes severely damaged its infrastructure. President Trump indicated his willingness to order a military strike on Iran, if the Iranian government cracked down on protests, but later said that the protesters was easing and ruled out the possibility of military action.

Global Updates
  • The MSCI All Country World Index edged lower over the week following President Donald Trump’s statement warned European countries of additional tariffs, if the U.S. was hindered from purchasing Greenland. Additionally global equities tracked the U.S. equities lower, following mixed earnings reports and the suggestion of a one-year rate cap on credit card interest rates.
  • The unemployment rate in Canada rose to 6.8% in December, up from 6.5% in November.
  • DeepSeek returned 55% on investment in its fund, High-Flyer.
  • Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. reported a record quarterly profit of $16 billion on revenue exceeding $33.1 
  • Suppliers involved in producing components for Nvidia’s H200 chip have temporarily halted output after Chinese customs blocked shipments of the newly approved AI processors from entering the country.
  • Porsche recorded its sharpest annual sales drop in 16 years in 2025, as weak demand and strong competition in China contributed to a 10% global decline, mirroring similar struggles at Audi and Mercedes‑
  • Canada negotiated a new trade agreement with China, under which Canada will sharply cut tariffs on key imports by allowing 49,000 Chinese electric vehicles into the market at a reduced 6% rate—down from 100%—and lowering the canola seed tariff from 84% to about 15% by March 1.
  • China has halted imports of Russian electricity due to high prices, while Russia says it is ready to resume supplies and ongoing talks aim to resolve the issue.
  • U.S. gold spot prices posted its second consecutive weekly gain and a record price of $4,642.72 in the week driven by geopolitical tensions. However, receding geopolitical tensions led to profit taking by investors at the end of the week.
  • Oil prices have risen over the week as investors priced in the potential for supply disruptions if geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalate.
U.S. Equity
  • U.S. equity markets declined over the week reacting to mixed economic data and President Trumps remarks on the credit card industry. Shares of major credit‑card issuers fell sharply after President Trump announced a one‑year cap of 10% on credit‑card interest rates starting Jan 20. Markets initially shrugged off the Department of Justice’s subpoena on Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
  • The Supreme Court has deferred ruling on the legality of the Trump tariffs which has extended the uncertainty faced by stakeholders. Trump administration’s economic advisor Kevin Hassett said that in case of an adverse ruling, the White House’s backup plan is to impose a universal 10% tariff.
  • President Donald Trump indicated his preference to retain Kevin Hassett in his position as top economic advisor to the Trump administration. This has raised the probability of Kevin Warsh being appointed as the Fed Chair.
  • The U.S. Department of Justice issued grand jury subpoenas to Fed Chair Jerome Powell over his June Senate Banking Committee testimony related to Fed building renovations. Powell suggested that the potential criminal charges were aimed at influencing the Fed’s independent making.
  • JPMorgan Chase reported a higher-than-expected EPS of $5.23 and revenue of $46.77 billion over the fourth quarter. However, a $2.2 billion reserve led to a 7% decline in the bank’s profits to $13.03 billion.
  • Bank of America posted 12% higher fourth-quarter profit of $7.6 billion on 9.7% higher net interest income of $15.92 billion.
  • Wells Fargo’s 4% higher net interest income of $12.33 billion in the fourth quarter missed expectations due to the $612 million in severance expenses over the quarter.
  • Alphabet’s market capitalization crossed the $4 trillion benchmark this week, after Alphabet stock rallied following the news of Apple’s plans to use Google’s Gemini to drive the upcoming Apple Intelligence features, and an AI-enhanced Siri.
  • Walmart’s stock price rose on the news of the retailer joining the Nasdaq 100 index. Walmart has also announced a partnership with Google’s Gemini AI, similar to its partnership with ChatGPT last year.
  • Walmart International promoted Chris Nicholas to succeed CEO Kathryn McLay who will be stepping down at the end of the month. John Furner will be taking over as the CEO of Walmart U.S.A from Doug McMillon February 1.
  • Meta has named former Trump deputy national security advisor, Dina Powell McCormick as its new president and vice chairman.
  • Micron’s stock price rose after regulatory filing’s unveiled the purchase of $8 million in stock by company insiders.
  • Stock price of Constellation energy and Vistra declined following the reported plans by the Trump administration to push for emergency power procurement auctions and to promote captive power generation by data centers along with expansion of existing infrastructure.
  • The Trump administration approved the exports Nvidia’s H200 AI chips to China but China has barred their import.
Fixed Income
  • The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index declined over the week.
  • The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose up to 4.231% and the yield on the 2-year note rose to 599% over the week.
  • The U.S. Dollar Index rose to 99.39 over the week.

HCM-030624-063.GWS

January 9, 2026

Data and Geopolitics dominate Global Markets

Global equities started the week on a positive note but later reversed gains as mixed U.S. economic data sparked concerns over labor market health and persistent geopolitical tensions. PMI data indicated higher momentum in the American services sector, while employment data indicated slowing growth in jobs creation. President Trump’s advocacy for a higher military budget assisted in the recovery of defense stocks. The president also advocated for affordable housing with the federal purchase of mortgage-backed securities, which impacted housing related stocks.  

In global geopolitics, a Russian strike hit infrastructure in Lviv early Friday, while drone attacks left two southeastern regions in blackout. President Zelenskiy accused Moscow of using winter as a weapon to weaken Ukraine instead of pursuing U.S.-led diplomatic solutions to the conflict. After being captured by U.S. forces in a weekend military operation in Caracas, Venezuela’s ousted president and his wife appeared in a federal court in New York City on Monday. President Trump has announced that the second wave of attacks on Venezuela have been cancelled due to the cooperation by the interim government. President Trump has however suggested military and economic actions against Iran if protestors in the country are harmed by the government.

Global Updates
  • The MSCI All Country World Index rose early in the session but later reversed gains, as investor sentiment weakened amid mixed U.S. labor data and geopolitical tensions. 
  • Germany’s annual inflation rate fell to 1.8% in December, below market expectations.
  • MiniMax Group surged 78% on its Hong Kong debut after raising HKD 4.8 billion for R&D, outshining Zhipu AI’s earlier 13% gain as investor demand soared.
  • Saudi Arabia will open its capital markets to foreign investors starting February 2026, removing QFI restrictions in a bid to boost liquidity.
  • At least 80 people, including civilians, were reported as casualties in Venezuela following a U.S. attack. 
  • OPEC+ has decided to pause oil production increases during the first quarter of 2026 due to seasonal factors and geopolitical concerns.
  • Russian drone strikes on Kyiv early Friday killed four people and injured 19, causing severe damage to homes, as per Ukrainian officials.
  • A Russian strike hit infrastructure in Lviv as overnight drone attacks left two southeastern regions in blackout. President Zelenskiy accused Moscow of weaponizing winter instead of pursuing diplomacy.
  • India’s trade pact with the U.S. stalled, resulting in failed talks and higher tariffs on Indian goods, partly due to disputes over Russian oil purchases.
U.S. Equity
  • U.S. equity markets rose earlier in the week, but declined over the week reacting to mixed economic data and President Trump’s remarks on defense companies and institutional investors. The Dow Jones index closed above the 49,000 benchmark for the first time on Tuesday. The market remained subdued on Thursday as investors awaited the key December jobs report and a potential Supreme Court decision on President Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs.
  • ADP private payrolls data indicated that private sector employment in the US rose by a slower than expected 41,000 jobs in December and annual pay was up 4.4%.
  • U.S. JOLTS Job Openings data declined to 7.14 million in November falling short of the 7.6 million expected. 
  • U.S. ISM Services PMI rose to 54.4 in December from 52.6 in November, indicating a strong momentum in the services sector at the year end. 
  • Dow Jones has entered an exclusive partnership with Polymarket to integrate real-time prediction market data across outlets like The Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, and MarketWatch, including new consumer tools. 
  • US markets reacted sharply after Trump vowed to curb institutional purchases of single‑family homes and restrict defense contractors’ buybacks and dividends, triggering steep declines in housing and defense stocks led by Blackstone and Lockheed Martin. However, defense stocks recovered following President Trump’s advocacy for raising the Military Budget in 2027 to $1.5 Trillion. President Trump also advocated for the purchase of $200 billion in mortgage‑backed securities by the federal government to bring down mortgage rates and ease worsening housing affordability pressures.
  • Rio Tinto and Glencore have resumed talks to merge their businesses into the world’s largest mining company. Currently Rio Tinto’s capitalization is estimated to be $137 billion and Glencore at $70 billion. 
  • Nvidia and AMD stock rose this week after the companies displayed their next generation of AI chips at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas.
Fixed Income
  • The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index edged lower over the week.
  • The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield edged down to 4.183% and the yield on the 2-year note edged up to 3.488% over the week.
  • The U.S. Dollar Index rose to 99.01 over the week.

HCM-030624-063.GWS

December 19, 2025

Expected Fed Easing Fuels Late Market Gains

Global markets retreated sharply this week on adverse labor market data and apprehensions of an AI bubble. The week, however, ended on a positive note, buoyed by the announcement of cooling inflation data. Micron Technology outperformed the technology sector due to strong quarterly performance and an upbeat guidance for the second fiscal quarter. 

On the geopolitical front, President Trump addressed the nation recollecting the administration’s accomplishments in reducing border crossings and lowering prices. President Donald Trump also ordered a blockade on oil tankers entering or exiting Venezuela. Kevin Hassett’s candidacy for the post Federal Reserve chair encountered increasing dissent from within the administration. The debate over the independence of the Federal Reserve was revived by President Donald Trump suggesting an advisory role on interest rate decisions.

Global Updates
  • The MSCI All Country World Index fell during the week, as investors reacted to soft labor market data, indicating slower non-farm payroll growth and a rise in unemployment, and brought renewed doubts about further Fed rate cuts.
  • The US unemployment rate increased to 4.6% in November.
  • The HCOB Flash Eurozone Manufacturing PMI fell to 49.2 in December.
  • The annual inflation rate in the UK slowed to 3.2% in November, compared to 3.6% in October and forecasts of 3.5%. The largest downward contribution came from prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages.
  • Ukraine signals a major shift in negotiations with Russia by dropping its demand for NATO membership, aiming to advance peace talks.
  • President Donald Trump ordered on Tuesday a “blockade” of all sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela, in Washington’s latest move to increase pressure on Nicolas Maduro’s government, targeting its main source of income.
  • Pfizer fell after the drugmaker forecast a challenging 2026 due to weaker sales of COVID-19 products and squeezed margins.
  • Diageo has agreed to sell its 65% stake in East African Breweries Ltd. to Japan’s Asahi Group Holdings Ltd. for $2.3 billion.
U.S. Equity
  • U.S. equity markets retreated over the week, with major broad-based indices posting losses. The reemergence of fears of an AI bubble and labor market data indicating four-year high unemployment weighed on investor sentiments. However, the markets recovered on Thursday following the release of data signaling cooler than expected inflation in November. 
  • The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that consumer price inflation eased to 2.7% in November, down from 3.0% in September. Core inflation also declined, moving from 3.0% in September to 2.6% in November. The moderation in inflation was largely driven by lower prices for hotel stays, recreation, and apparel, along with a slowdown in shelter costs. However, economists expressed caution regarding the inflation data, citing potential distortions due to the absence of October price data. 
  • The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the unemployment rate rose to a four-year high of 4.6% in November, while the economy added 64,000 jobs. The report also included partial October data, as complete figures were unavailable due to the government shutdown
  • Micron Technology reported fiscal first-quarter earnings per share of $4.78, significantly exceeding expectations, on revenue of $13.64 billion, also above estimates. The company raised its fiscal second-quarter revenue guidance to $18.70 billion, citing robust AI-driven demand for computer memory.
  • Cannabis stocks rallied during the week after President Trump approved the order for the reclassification of Cannabis which is expected to ease the existing restrictions on the industry.
  • Oracle shares declined following reports that Blue Owl Capital withdrew from its planned collaboration on the Michigan data center project. Oracle later clarified that it is in discussions to negotiate a potential equity deal to support the project.
  • Amazon is reportedly considering a $10 billion investment in OpenAI, which may include the adoption of Amazon’s AI chips. 
  • Warner Bros. Discovery board has recommended a rejection of Paramount’s hostile takeover bid of $10.84 billion to its shareholders citing the elevated risks with its financing structure. 
  • Tesla’s market capitalization rose to $1.63 trillion following reports of progress on its autonomous driving initiative and plans to test driverless Robotaxis in Austin, Texas.
  • SpaceX is reportedly preparing for an insider share sale which would value the company at USD 800 billion.
Fixed Income
  • The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index were in line over the week.
  • The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield edged down to 4.12% and the yield on the 2-year note declined to 3.46% over the week.
  • The U.S. Dollar Index edged up to 98.66 over the week.

HCM-030624-063.GWS

December 12, 2025

Fed Easing Fuels Market Gains

Global markets ended the week on a positive note, buoyed by the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) third consecutive rate cut and optimism around global trade. U.S. equities hit record highs. Commodity markets were mixed—gold and silver rose on a weaker dollar and inflation concerns, while crude oil fell on expectations of oversupply amid Russia-Ukraine peace prospects. Central banks in Switzerland and Canada held rates steady, citing contrasting economic conditions. In corporate news, Oracle disappointed on earnings while Broadcom surged on strong AI chip sales. China’s trade surplus crossed $1 trillion, the U.K. posted its largest trade deficit.  

On the geopolitical front, President Trump criticized Ukraine’s peace efforts and hinted at withdrawing U.S. support, as the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues over territorial disputes. Trump also announced a $12 billion aid package to compensate farmers for trade-related losses. In the Middle East, Israel proposed Hamas disarmament under the U.S. peace plan, countering Hamas’s call for a weapons freeze. Meanwhile, renewed tensions between Thailand and Cambodia triggered political instability, culminating in the dissolution of Thailand’s parliament.

Global Updates
  • The MSCI All Country World Index rose during the week, closely tracking the U.S. equity markets and supported by the Fed’s interest rate cut and indications of resurgence in international trade.
  • The Swiss National Bank kept its policy rate unchanged at 0%, citing November inflation of 0% and weak third-quarter economic growth. The Swiss franc’s appreciation, driven by safe-haven demand, has added deflationary pressure on exports. 
  • The Bank of Canada held its policy rate unchanged at 2.25% citing a resilient economy which added 181,000 jobs between September to November and posted a GDP growth of 2.6% in the third quarter. 
  • The United Kingdom reported a higher trade deficit of £22.54 billion in October-the highest since January 2022-the highest since January 2022- driven by a 0.8% decline in exports to £30.96 billion. The British economy also contracted by 0.1% mom in October due to underperformance of the services sector.
  • Eli Lilly’s next-generation obesity drug, Retatrutide, showed promising results in a late-stage trial, highlighting its potential to significantly benefit patients with obesity and arthritis. 
  • Shareholders of Anglo American and Teck Resources have approved their merger, paving the way for the creation of one of the world’s top five copper producers. The deal now awaits clearance from U.K. regulators.
  • China’s trade surplus surpassed $1 trillion for January–November, supported by 5.4% export growth. November exports rose 5.9%, lifting the monthly trade surplus to $112 billion despite a 29% drop in shipments to the U.S. 
  • Gold and Silver prices rose over the week due to the U.S. Fed rate cut in an potentially inflationary environment and the decline in the U.S. dollar.   
  • Crude oil futures declined over the week amid expectations of a global surplus, driven by prospects of a Russia-Ukraine peace deal following the Trump administration’s threat to withdraw support for Ukraine. A Ukrainian drone strike on a Russian oil rig did not derail negotiations. The International Energy Agency continues to forecast oversupply, citing global inventories at a four-year high.
U.S. Equity
  • U.S. equity markets advanced this week, driven by the Fed’s third consecutive rate cut, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones reaching record highs at 6,900 and above 48,700, respectively. The Nasdaq also gained, though Oracle’s earnings tempered its performance. The Fed lowered its policy rate by 25 bps to a 3.50%–3.75% range in a split decision and projected one additional cut in 2026. Chair Jerome Powell described the economy as facing a “challenging situation,” citing a soft labor market and inflationary pressures from tariffs, and warned that prioritizing employment could heighten inflation risks. AI related technology stocks have declined this week, indicating a potential rotation out of technology stocks. 
  • Inflation is forecast at 3.0% and unemployment at 4.5% by end-2025, easing to 2.5% and 4.4%, respectively, in 2026.
  • Labor market data signaled weakness with weekly jobless claims surging by 44,000 to 236,000—the largest increase in eight months—for the week ended December 6. Job openings rose to 7.7 million in October per JOLTS data, but layoffs climbed to 1.85 million, the highest since January 2023.
  • The U.S. trade deficit narrowed 10.9% in September to a five-year low of $52.8 billion, as exports grew 3.0% to $289.3 billion, offsetting a 0.6% rise in imports to $342.1 billion. 
  • JPMorgan Chase shares lagged after projecting 2026 expenses of $105 billion, driven by investments in AI and competition in credit cards and community banking.
  • Oracle reported an EPS of $2.26 in its fiscal second quarter on a lower than expected revenue of $16.06 billion. Oracle reported $7.98 billion in cloud revenue, $4.1 billion in cloud infrastructure revenue and a 3% lower software revenue of $5.88 billion for the quarter that ended Nov. 30. Oracle’ stock price however declined due to investors’ concerns for rising debt and AI investments and, a negative cash flow of $10 billion in November. 
  • Broadcom reported higher than expected fourth-quarter EPS of $1.95 and revenue of $18.02 billion. Broadcom also projected a higher than estimated 28% growth in its first quarter fiscal revenue to $19.1 billion driven by a 100% growth in its AI chips sales to $8.2 billion.
  • Walmart has transferred its primary listing from the New York Stock Exchange to the Nasdaq to enhance the company’s perception as a technology driven e-commerce company.
Fixed Income
  • The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index rose over the week.
  • The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield declined to 4.14% and the yield on the 2-year note edged lower to 3.53% over the week. Treasury yields declined this week with Fed’s rate cut and announcement of purchases of $40 billion in short-term securities, while strong demand for a $22B 30-year bond sale reinforced the move.
  • The U.S. Dollar Index declined to 98.48 over the week.

HCM-030624-063.GWS

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