Mixed Market Signals: Earnings Buoy, Fed Tightens, Global Deal Stalled
Global stock markets made marginal advances over the week as investors weighed on the performance of large corporations and a steady, tightening stance of many of the world’s central banks. It was officially announced that even though the S&P 500 made advances since the start of 2024, the index has grown by just 4% since the turn of the New Year. In another announcement, equity buybacks are estimated to be $1 trillion this year, the highest it has been over the last decade. U.S. crude inventories fell by about 3.2 million barrels for the week ending April 19, pushing up energy prices. Majority of the ‘Magnificent Seven’ announced strong earnings for the first quarter of 2024 (Tesla was the only outlier). The giants also announced major capital outlays to stay in the race for AI dominance. In the Mining industry, a major acquisition by BHP Group of Anglo American Mining could consolidate the industry even more than it currently is. And finally, after several months of delays, the U.S. Senate has passed a $95 billion package sending aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan.
Global Equity
- The MSCI All Country World Index advanced during the week as investor and consumer confidence improved backed by solid corporate earnings announcements during the week.
- The U.S. economy grew at its slowest pace in nearly two years during the first quarter of 2024. A surge in imports, a small build-up of unsold goods at businesses and signs an acceleration in inflation reinforced expectations the Federal Reserve would not cut interest rates before September.
- In a mega deal for the mining industry, BHP Group bid $39 billion for Anglo American Mining, a deal that could forge the world’s biggest copper mining corporation. The deal is driven by a scramble for copper and other metals central to the world’s clean energy shift, and could have major repercussions for South Africa, which has seen the platinum it mines fall out of favor. The bid, however, was rejected by Anglo American.
- In a harsh statement by the NATO secretary, China has been warned to stop supporting Russia ‘s war in Ukraine if it wants to enjoy good relations with the West. China-Russian trade hit a record of $240.1 billion in 2023. Chinese shipments to Russia jumped 46.9% in 2023 while imports from Russia rose 13%.
- Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda left interest rates unchanged during the latest meeting, with the expectation that inflation will remain unchanged at 2%.
U.S. Equity
- The S&P 500 Index recorded a marginal increase in market activity during the week, as earning week had a lesser-than-expected impact on the market.
- Hasbro, Boston, AT&T, General Motors, Novartis, Kimberly-Clark, & Comcast shares surged after reporting better-than-expected first-quarter earnings.
- Microsoft and Alphabet shares were trending 4-5% higher towards the end of the week, buoyed by better-than-expected corporate earnings.
- Meta shares suffered heaviest losses during the week, despite exceeding quarterly profit and sales forecasts, as it raised its full-year capital expenditure guidance, citing higher legal costs and increased spending to build out its AI infrastructure.
- Tesla’s reported revenue fell 9% in the first quarter, while profits fell by 50% from the previous year.
- Shares of Boeing & Enphase Energy slid, after earnings came in lower than expected.
- The U.S. housing market is currently in a slump, as mortgage rates have surged past 7%.
U.S. Fixed Income
- The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index remained constant with slight fluctuations as equity markets recovered this week with Q1 corporate earnings buoying up investor and consumer confidence.
- The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield grew marginally from 4.66% to 4.68% over the week, while the yield on the 2-year note marginally from 5.01% to 4.98%.
- The U.S. Dollar Index marginally fell during the week as investors confidence gradually improved with encouraging results of corporate earnings from Q1, 2024.
Sources
- iShares Core Global Aggregate Bond UCITS ETF | AGGG
- US10Y: 4.682% -0.024 (-0.51%) (cnbc.com)
- US2Y: 4.989% -0.009 (0.00%) (cnbc.com)
- iShares Core S&P 500 ETF | IVV
- S&P Total Market Index | S&P Dow Jones Indices (spglobal.com)
- Truth Social Owner Trump Media & Technology Stock Soars in Debut (investopedia.com)
- 5 Things to Know Before the Stock Market Opens (investopedia.com)
- Singapore Economy Likely to Strengthen This Year, But Faces Long-Term Pressures – WSJ
- Bank of Japan Holds Rates Steady, Expects Inflation to Stay Around 2% – WSJ
- Indonesia Central Bank Delivers Surprise Rate Hike as Rupiah Tumbles – WSJ
- U.K. Consumers Get Spring in Step as Confidence Mounts – WSJ
- German Consumer Confidence Reaches Two-Year High – WSJ
- South Korea’s Economy Posts Stronger-Than-Expected Growth – WSJ
- Canada Retail Sales Slip 0.1% in February, Seen Flat in March – WSJ
- Blinken Meets With Xi as U.S. Pressures China to End Support for Russia – WSJ
- Mortgage Rates Top 7% As Housing Market Slumps – WSJ
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