3-12-25-SPX

Quick note:

The market is oversold, but we feel that we may not have seen the bottom yet. We are approximately 40% in cash, and we are looking for opportunities when the HCM Pivot Point® system brings us back into the market.

This is the fifth fastest 10% correction of the S&P 500 in 75 years. Drops like this have a very strong tendency to be a huge overreaction. Big disruptions like we are experiencing with the tariff issue can create big opportunities, and we think this selloff is a big overreaction. If you look back at the other selloffs, they based and moved higher in short order. The stock market was higher at 1M, 3M, 6M and 12M later:

  • 5 of 6 times, higher 1M later (except covid)
  • 6 of 6 times, higher 3M later, median gain 9%
  • 6 of 6 times, higher 6M later, median gain 15%
  • 6 of 6 times, higher 12M later, median gain 21%