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May 23, 2025

Fiscal anxiety of the U.S. economy weighs on investor sentiments worldwide.

Global markets were increasingly apprehensive this week due to concerns regarding higher inflation and the ballooning U.S. fiscal deficit. The U.K. and Japan reported higher-than-expected inflation in April. Moody’s downgraded U.S. sovereign credit rating citing the fiscal stress on the U.S. economy. Possibility of an Israel-Iran conflict raised Crude oil prices which were subsequently cooled by the news of upcoming U.S.-Iran talks. China cut its domestic interest rates to revive the currently sluggish domestic demand. The U.S. house of representatives narrowly passed the Republican budget proposal, which now awaits the senate’s approval. The easing of U.S.-China trade relations continued with the talks between the US Deputy Secretary Kurt Campbell and Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu this week. Chinese officials also expressed their interest in supporting U.S. businesses. This week President Donald Trump also unveiled a $175 billion plan for a Golden Dome program to shield the U.S. from Chinese and Russian attacks.

Global Updates
  • The MSCI All Country World Index was lower this week as investors globally digested the data on rising inflation and the ballooning U.S. fiscal deficit.
  • The inflation in the U.K. surged to 3.5% in April, the highest since January 2024, from 2.6% in March. The rising prices were motivated by higher payroll taxes and utility prices. Despite the inflation, retail sales in the U.K. recorded a strong 1.2% growth in April, due to the weather. Japan’s core inflation also rose to 3.5% in April, the highest in two years spurred by rising food grain prices due to the impact of U.S. tariffs. Central banks of both countries are increasingly cautious of changing their interest rates, given the inflation data.
  • The European Union and the U.K. unveiled an agreement covering the economic, political and security issues. The agreement attempts to reset relations between them, five years post-Brexit. 
  • U.K. telecom giant Vodafone reported a full-year operating loss of 411 million euros on a revenue of 37.4 billion euros, due to the impairment charges of 4.5 billion euros in Germany and Romania. 
  • The finance ministers and central bank leaders of the G7 countries met this week in Banff, Alberta to lay the groundwork for the upcoming meeting of the G7 leaders next month. The finance group came to a consensus on monitoring the risks from AI, combating financial crimes and support for Ukraine. 
  • Bloomberg news reported that the UBS group may be required by the Swiss government to hold $25 billion additional capital for loss absorption for 100% of its foreign units’ capital.
  • The People’s Bank of China cut its one-year loan prime rate (LPR) by 10 bps to 3.0 % and the five-year LPR from to 3.5 %. The rate cut was driven by sluggish demand in China’s economy which was exacerbated by the ongoing tariff crisis.  
  • Global oil prices fluctuated this week due to the fears of supply disruption. Earlier prices rose following the release of a CNN report which suggested that an Israel attack on Iran’s nuclear sites was imminent. Subsequently prices cooled following the news of the next round of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks scheduled in Rome. Bahrain and Russia are currently in talks for supply of Natural Gas.
  • Precious metals are set to gain this week due to concerns for the U.S. economy weighed down by fiscal stress.
U.S. Equity
  • The S&P 500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq ended the week lower, weighed down by concerns for the U.S. economy. Moody’s downgrading of U.S. treasuries due to the fiscal stress on the U.S. economy was a cause of concern for investors this week. The discussions of the Republican tax and spending bill in the U.S. Congress, also highlighted the ballooning U.S. deficit. Investors were also cautious due to the higher inflation reported in the U.K. and Japan.
  • The U.S.’ sovereign credit rating was downgraded by Moody’s to Aa1 due to the fiscal strain of debt servicing costs and rising national debt in the current high-interest rate environment. 
  • The Republicans’ budget bill cleared the House of Representatives by a narrow margin. The bill incorporates significant tax and spending cuts. The U.S. senate will be discussing the bill next week. 
  • The U.S. senate is set to pass the first crypto currency legislation by the U.S. Congress, setting up the regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies. Cryptocurrency related stocks rose following the news. 
  • Seagate Technology Holdings has been authorized to repurchase stocks up to $5 billion, to support the company’s cash flow and capital. 
  • Alphabet shares rose following the unveiling of Google’s “AI Mode” in Google Search for all U.S. based users.
  • President Trump opined that the retail giant like Walmart should absorb the cost increases from his tariff policies instead of charging higher prices for the customers. 
  • Blackstone Infrastructure will be acquiring TXNM Energy, the power provider in New Mexico and Texas, for $11.5 billion. 
  • Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, while praising President Trump on his flexibility on the tariffs imposed on AI related tech, has estimated the lost sales due to the government export restrictions on AI chips at $50 billion. The major loss in sales was in China, where Nvidia’s chips were substituted by domestically manufactured chips.
Fixed Income
  • The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index rose this week as markets digested higher estimates for inflation and fiscal pressure in developed markets.
  • The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.513% and the yield on the 2-year note was in line at 3.983% over the week. 
  • The U.S. Dollar Index depreciated to 99.51 this week. The lackluster demand for 20-year bonds this week, led to a dollar selloff. The downgrading of U.S. treasuries by Moody’s and the ballooning U.S. deficit also weighed on the value of the U.S. dollar.

HCM-030624-063.GWS

May 16, 2025

U.S. and China slash tariffs, global markets heave a sigh of relief

U.S. and China agreed to drastically lower the mutually imposed tariffs, enthusing the equity markets. The Federal Reserve (Fed) chair appraised the markets of the possibility of interest rates being maintained to manage supply shock inflation. President Trump signs executive order to lower pharmaceutical drug costs and punitive action in case of non-compliance. President Trump toured the Middle Eastern countries this week and is expected to announce multiple deals during this period. Armed conflict between India and Pakistan ceased this week, which was facilitated by the U.S.A. President Trump also said that the nuclear deal talks with Iran are progressing well. Russian president Vladimir Putin avoided the highly expected meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Turkey.

Global Updates
  • The MSCI All Country World Index was higher this week driven by the trade optimism after the U.S. and China agreed on a 90-day tariff truce in Geneva. Both countries rolled back their reciprocal tariffs by 115% lowering the U.S. tariffs to 30% and Chinese tariffs to 10%. The equity markets and the dollar rallied following the news and prices of safe haven assets like Gold declined.
  • Richemont reported a higher than expected 7% growth in first quarter sales, driven by higher spending by wealthy customers ahead of the U.S. tariffs. 
  • Novo Nordisk has agreed to the collaborative development of oral molecular drugs for treating obesity and diabetes, with the U.S. biotech firm Septerna.  
  • China has surpassed the U.S. as the leading customer for Canadian crude from the Trans Mountain pipeline. 
  • Alibaba reported lower than expected first quarter revenue of $32.8 billion due to sluggish consumer spending and increased competition. China’s IT stocks were weighed down by the possibility of the U.S. widening the export blacklist of Chinese semiconductor firms 
  • Japan’s real GDP contracted by 0.7% in the first quarter of 2025. The economy was weighed down by declining exports demand and stagnation in private consumption.
  • Crude oil prices benefited from the potential oil demand anticipated due to the lowering of the U.S.-China tariffs. Crude oil prices had been initially weighed down by the supply pressures from OPEC+ and the possible suspension of sanctions on Iran due to the nuclear deal being negotiated by the U.S. with Iran.
U.S. Equity
  • The S&P 500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq indices recovered this week driven by market optimism for the Sino-U.S. tariff truce. The reduced tariffs between the two countries drove up the stock prices for electronics, AI related products and Automobiles.
  • U.S. retail sales were lackluster in April, recording only 0.1% growth in sales. Producer prices contracted by 0.5%, due to the sharp drop in travel costs due to softening demand. Sluggish economic growth is now anticipated in the near future. 
  • Fed chair Jerome Powell cautioned the markets of the possibility of interest rates being maintained higher for longer, to deal with supply shocks and inflation in the near future. The Fed will have to recalibrate and balance its approach to manage the twin mandates of controlling inflation and supporting economic growth. In the long run, the fed still considers its target inflation rate of 2% to be achievable.
  • The UnitedHealth Group’s stock price fell following the news of an investigation by the U.S. Department of Justice for Medicare fraud by its Medicare Advantage business. The health insurance company’s CEO Andrew Witty also stepped down for personal reasons. The company also had to suspend its full year outlook due to higher-than-expected expenditure costs. 
  • Walmart stock price gained after the company reported a higher than expected first quarter Earnings per Share (EPS) of $0.61 on a revenue of $165.99 billion. Walmart reiterated is fiscal 2026 guidance issued in the year beginning. Walmart CEO Doug McMillon cautioned for higher prices in the coming months due to tariffs. 
  • Nvidia’s market cap rose to $3.2 trillion, after it announced a new chip supply deal with the Saudi Arabian AI startup Humain.  
  • President Trump signed an executive order this week, setting up a 30 day deadline for pharmaceutical companies to lower the prices of prescription drugs indexed to the lowest price charged in other developed countries. In case of unsatisfactory action by pharma companies, the Trump administration will impose limits on prices paid by the government. The Republicans have also unveiled plans to reduce $880 billion from the budget allocation for Medicaid 
  • Boeing stock gained after the Chinese government raised the restrictions placed on airlines from taking delivery of planes manufactured in the U.S. The restrictions which had been setup by Beijing were relaxed subsequent to a temporary Sino-U.S. tariff agreement.
Fixed Income
  • The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index recovered from a decline earlier in the week.
  • The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.406% and the yield on the 2-year note edged up to 3.926% over the week. 
  • The U.S. Dollar Index appreciated slightly to 100.55 this week.

HCM-030624-063.GWS

May 9, 2025

Global markets anticipate tariff de-escalation, while the U.S. Fed remains cautiously optimistic

U.S. Markets slumped early in the week in anticipation of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) rate decision mid-week. Markets later recovered with the announcement of de-escalation talks scheduled between the U.S. and China in Geneva on Saturday. The (Fed) chose to hold interest rates steady citing the potential inflationary and unemployment risks from the ongoing tariff uncertainty. European Markets also recovered from political uncertainty, due to a depreciating Euro following the Fed’s decision. 

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney was amiable yet tough during his visit to the U.S. white House. In Germany Friedrich Merz failed to secure the votes to succeed Olaf Sholz as the new Chancellor. Armed conflict between India and Pakistan began this week. A U.S.-U.K. trade agreement providing access to U.S. exports and tariff exemptions to select U.K. exports, was also announced. India and the U.K. also announced a bilateral Free Trade Agreement.

Global Updates
  • The MSCI All Country World Index edged slightly lower this week, weighed down by the political uncertainty in Germany and anticipation of the Fed’s rate decision. Markets were also optimistic regarding possible tariff de-escalation during the upcoming U.S.-China trade talks in Switzerland. 
  • The Bank of England (BoE) lowered its interest rates by 25 bps to 4.25%. Governor Andrew Bailey suggested that the downward trend in interest rates would continue, with the BoE vigilant for external factors affecting the economy and markets.
  • U.S. President Donald Trump and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced a trade agreement between the U.S. and the U.K. The bilateral deal reduced tariffs on cars, steel and aluminum among other goods and expanded market access to American beef and ethanol. The 10% tariff on most British goods will be continued. 
  • India and the U.K. concluded a Free Trade Agreement after three years of negotiations. The agreement is expected to benefit the economy, investment and job creation in both countries.
  • Shell is exploring a possible takeover bid of BP amid a fall in stock prices. Shell could alternatively also opt for share buybacks.
  • The People’s Bank of China has announced a rate cut of 10 bps to 1.4% for its Reverse Repo Ratio with downstream impact on the LPR. The bank aims to release CNY 1 trillion liquidity in the financial system through a 50 bps cut in the reserve requirement ratio for all Chinese banks.
  • China’s current account surplus widened to $165.6 billion in the first quarter of 2025 driven by a 9.4% jump in exports coupled with a 6.6% decline in imports. 
  • Oil prices fell sharply after OPEC+ announced an increase of 411,000 barrels in oil production from June. The production hike is designed to penalize countries not adhering to the production quotas decided by OPEC+. Crude oil subsequently recovered buoyed by the hope of U.S.-China trade talks and the news of U.S. oil supply cuts.
U.S. Equity
  • The S&P 500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq indices recovered this week due to announcement of de-escalation talks between U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng. The markets were initially subdued early in the week as the markets looked to the policy stance the U.S. fed would adopt. The Fed’s cautious optimism and the U.S. and U.K. trade deal also contributed to the market’s optimism.
  • The U.S. Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held the policy rates steady citing the prevailing uncertainty, as the markets expected. The committee adopted a cautious stance, due to unemployment and inflation risks, awaiting further developments in the tariff negotiations between the U.S. and other countries. The FOMC attributed the economic contraction in the first quarter to higher imports, even as the U.S. economy continued to expand. 
  • The U.S. added a higher than expected 177,000 jobs in April, driven by transportation and warehousing jobs despite tariff uncertainty. Job gains in February and March were also revised down by 58,000 jobs. 
  • Alphabet stock price fell on the fears of its Google search engine being replaced by  AI based search engines.
  • Berkshire Hathaway’s board selected Greg Abel to succeed Warren Buffett as the CEO of the company. Buffett will be continuing as the chairman of Berkshire.
  • Enphase energy stock price rose following the release of its plug and play solar energy system in Germany. 
  • Palantir’s stock fell despite raising its fully year outlook driven by demand for AI and a 39% jump in its quarterly revenue. Palantir’s first quarter’s adjusted earning per share (EPS) of 13 cents was in line with estimates despite a higher than expected revenue of $884 million.
  • The FDA has appointed Dr. Vinay Prasad as the top vaccine regulator. Vinay is a well-known critic of the U.S. strategy to handle the covid pandemic. The move has negatively impacted most pharmaceutical stocks. 
  • Nuclear energy company Constellation Energy posted 10% growth in its first quarter operating revenue to $6.79 billion due to AI driven energy demand, despite which its adjusted EPS of $2.14 was below expectations. 
  • Ford reported a higher than expected adjusted EPS of 14 cents on a revenue of $40.7 billion for the first quarter. The company suspended its full year outlook citing the ongoing tariff uncertainty.
Fixed Income
  • The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index edged lower this week.
  • The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was slightly higher at 4.369% and the yield on the 2-year note edged up to 3.874% over the week. 
  • The U.S. Dollar Index appreciated to 100.78 this week. The U.S. Fed’s interest rate decision and cautious optimism strengthened the U.S. dollar against the Euro and the Yen.

HCM-030624-063.GWS

May 5, 2025

Global markets buoyed by corporate resilience and tariff de-escalation

Global equity markets continued to recover this week driven by stronger-than-expected corporate earnings and de-escalation in trade conflicts. Major trade deals were reported to be close to completion and President Trump selectively rolled back the tariffs on automobiles and parts. On the other hand, Japan’ finance minister revealed plans to leverage holdings of U.S. treasuries in the trade negotiations with the U.S. European GDP expanded over the first quarter while U.S. GDP contracted, driven by higher imports. The U.S. threatened sanctions on countries importing Iranian oil. The announcement was pushed by a breakdown in the U.S. and Iran nuclear talks. The U.S. and Ukraine signed a minerals deal giving the U.S. access to mineral resources sans any formal security guarantees. Secretary of State Marco Rubio was appointed to the role of interim National Security Adviser to replace Mike Waltz, following multiple highly publicized information leaks during his brief tenure. The republicans are finding the extension of Trump’s 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act to be an uphill task.

Global Updates
  • The MSCI All Country World Index was higher this week, as all major global equity markets continued to recover from the global selloff in April. The American, European, U.K. and Asian stock markets continued to register gains driven by mixed corporate earnings reports and the gradual softening in the Trump administration’s tariff stance. China also expressed its willingness to negotiate with the U.S. 
  • The Eurozone GDP growth rate for the first quarter of 2025 was stronger-than-expected at 0.4%, outperforming the U.S. economy which contracted due to higher imports. 
  • Eurozone inflation came in at 2.2%, same as March inflation and above the European Central Bank’s (ECB) target rate of 2%. The higher-than-expected inflation is unlikely to deter the ECB from further lowering its policy rates.
  • French bank Societe Generale reported 6.6% higher revenues of 7.1 billion euros and at least a 100% growth in its net income to 1.61 billion euros for the previous quarter, due to gains from asset sales.  
  • Japan’s finance minister Katsunobu Kato revealed that Japan plans to leverage its $1 trillion holdings in U.S. treasuries in the trade tariff negotiations with the U.S. 
  • China expressed its willingness to negotiate trade barriers with the Trump administration, even as President Trump ruled out a reduction of China tariffs in the immediate future. 
  • President Trump’s threat of sanctions on Iran drove up oil prices this week. President Trump threatened secondary sanctions on countries buying Iranian oil after the U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations were postponed this week.
U.S. Equity
  • The S&P 500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq indices rose this week, bolstered by strong corporate earnings and the Trump administration’s increasingly accommodative stance on tariffs.   Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick also hinted that a major trade deal was close to being finalized. The decline in job openings was offset by higher-than-expected non-farm payroll numbers. 
  • The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a higher than expected 177, 000 jobs added to the nonfarm payrolls in April, driven by hiring in healthcare, transportation and warehousing. 
  • The U.S. GDP contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025, due to weak domestic demand and higher imports. 
  • Amazon’s first quarter Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $1.59 on a revenue of $155.7 billion beat estimates. Amazon’s guidance for the second quarter was tempered by tariff uncertainty. The weak growth in its cloud division and Jeff Bezos’ plans to offload shares worth $4.8 billion also weighed on the company’s stock.  
  • Meta’s 16% growth in first quarter revenues came to $42.31 billion and the 35% higher net income of $16.64 billion exceeded expectations. Meta has also issued an in-line guidance for the upcoming quarter, despite economic uncertainty.  
  • Eli Lilly reported a higher-than-expected revenue of $12.73 billion and adjusted EPS of $3.43 for the first quarter driven by the sales of its weight loss drugs. The company confirmed its previous full-year revenue guidance in the $58 to $61 billion range but lowered its profit forecasts due to losses in equity investments and higher R&D charges.
  • Microsoft reported a 13% jump in its fiscal third quarter revenues to $70.07 billion, resulting in a net income of $3.46 per share. The strong earnings growth was driven by the 21% growth in the revenue to $26. 75 billion from Microsoft’s Intelligent Cloud division. 
  • Berkshire Hathaway has appointed Vice Chairman Greg Abel to succeed legendary investor Warren Buffet as the CEO of Berkshire Hathaway. 
  • Apple posted a 4% jump in its revenue to $95.4 billion for the previous quarter and a 7% higher EPS of $1.65. Apple anticipates $900 million additional costs in the upcoming quarter due to tariffs. Currently consumer electronics have been granted a temporary exemption from tariffs. Apple has announced a $100 billion share repurchase program and raised its dividend by 4%.
Fixed Income
  • The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index edged higher this week.
  • The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was slightly higher at 4.318% and the yield on the 2-year note edged up to 3.84% over the week. 
  • The U.S. Dollar Index appreciated to 99.98 this week. Warren Buffet cautioned investors to diversify their currency holdings to manage currency risks emerging  from a persistent U.S. fiscal deficit.

HCM-030624-063.GWS

April 25, 2025

President Trump’s pivot and earnings week fueled a see-saw market

In another eventful week, investor sentiment improved as markets digested largely positive corporate earnings reports. Markets were also enthused by President Trump backtracking on his aggressive remarks regarding Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell.  The White House and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also expressed their openness to lowering tariffs on China, conditional on the Chinese government being accommodative to the Trump administration’s demands. The U.S. is reportedly close to finalizing trade agreements in principle with Japan and India. In two significant shocks to the Trump administration, Elon Musk announced a significantly reduced involvement in the government and the U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth faced renewed scrutiny for his breach of confidentiality norms. In Canada, Prime Minister Mark Carney continues to lead in the opinion polls, ahead of the federal election on Monday.

Global Updates
  • The MSCI All Country World Index was higher this week, as all major global equity markets continued to recover from the selloff earlier in the month. The European and U.K. stock markets registered gains driven by mixed corporate earnings reports and the evolving clarity from the Trump administration. The Nikkei and other Asian markets also rose on the hopes of recovery in the China-U.S. trade relationship. This week President Trump softened his stance on the high U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports imposed by his administration. 
  • The U.K. data for retail sales exceeded expectations, rising by 0.4% in March and by 2.6% over the first quarter. However, the production of automobiles declined by 6.3% in the quarter. U.K.’s composite PMI fell to 48.2 in April, indicating contraction in both the manufacturing and services sectors. 
  • The Eurozone’s composite PMI reading of 50.1 in April also indicated stagnation in business activity due to tariff uncertainty. 
  • Adidas reported a 82% jump in its first quarter operating profits to $692 million, driven by the strong demand for sneakers. The company’s sales also rose by 13% to 6.15 billion euros.
  • Consumer Goods behemoth Unilever’s first quarter sales growth of 3% beat estimates driven by price hikes and demand for premium products.
  • BNP Paribas reported a 4.9% fall in its net income to $3.34 billion in line with expectations. The bank maintained its guidance for the 2024-26 targets despite uncertainty and rising costs. 
  • Renault posted a 0.6% growth in its first quarter revenues to $13.24 billion despite exchange rate shock and problems of a reduced inventory. 
  • The gains in Hong Kong stocks this week was accompanied by profit taking by Chinese investors, offloading equities worth $2 billion in a day.
  • Chinese technology companies are increasingly relying on Huawei Technologies’ 910C AI chip to replace Nvidia’s H20 chips, whose exports to China were made conditional on acquiring an export license by the U.S. government.
  • Hyundai Motor posted a 2% growth in its operating profits to $2.5 billion for the first quarter. Hyundai has launched a task force to manage the impact of U.S. tariffs in the coming years and is also considering shifting production to the U.S. or other countries. 
  • Gold crossed the $3,500 per ounce benchmark this week. J.P. Morgan now expects the safe haven metal to reach $3,675 per ounce by the fourth quarter and reach $4,000 by mid-year 2026.
U.S. Equity
  • The S&P 500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq indices rose this week, bolstered by strong corporate earnings. Investors were also increasingly optimistic due to President Trump’s accommodative stance on China tariffs and Fed Chair Jerome Powell. 
  • This week, President Trump backtracked on his previously stated intent of firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell, although he reiterated his demand for the Fed to lower interest rates. This was accompanied by the suggestion of a possible de-escalation of the tariff war with China, conditional on China acquiescing to the Trump administration’s demands. 
  • The U.S. government has announced anti-dumping duties on Solar panels and cells imported from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam and were a part of entrepot trade from China. The announcement is expected to benefit U.S. manufacturers of solar equipment like First Solar. 
  • Orders for durable goods rose by 9.2% (seasonally adjusted) in March, due to companies attempting to end run the tariffs anticipated in April. 
  • Goldman Sachs has lowered the GDP growth estimate for the first quarter to 0.1% from an initial estimate of 0.4%.
  • The IMF has projected the U.S. fiscal deficit narrowing to 6.5% of the GDP in 2025, driven by potentially large tariff revenues 
  • Alphabet’s first quarter earnings and revenue beat expectations, reporting an EPS of $2.81 on revenue of $90.2 billion. Following the strong results, Alphabet has announced a 5% dividend increase and a $70 billion in stock buyback program.
  • Microchip Technology unveiled its advancements in power management in a new power module designed for efficient power usage in data centers and industrial automation. 
  • Credit rating agency Equifax reported a 4% growth in first quarter revenue to $1.44 billion, topping estimates. Equifax also announced a $3 billion share repurchase program after raising the quarterly dividend by 28% to 50 cents per share. 
  • Boston Scientific stock rose following an upward revision of its guidance for 2025. The company reported an EPS of $0.75 in the first quarter, topping estimates, on a revenue of $4.66 billion. The company plans to offset an estimated $200 million impact of tariff with lower costs and higher sales.
  • IBM’s first quarter adjusted profit of $1.6 per share and revenue of $14.54 billion beat estimates. The performance driven by software sales offset the decline in its consulting business. IBM also raised its revenue guidance for the second quarter to the $16.4 billion to $16.75 billion range, beating estimates. Despite the strong results and guidance, the company’s stock price declined due to the CEOs emphasis on the possible impacts of global uncertainty and government cuts on future revenue flows. 
  • ServiceNow posted a 18% jump in its first quarter earnings to $4.04 per share on a revenue of $3.09 billion. ServiceNow raised its revenue guidance to the $3.03 billion to $3.035 billion range, beating estimates. 
  • Valero Energy posted a loss in the first quarter despite an adjusted profit of $0.89 per share, due to an impairment charge of $1 billion. 
  • High speed electric cable and antenna manufacturer Amphenol’s first quarter results beat estimates. The company reported 48% growth in net sales to $4.81 billion, generating an adjusted EPS of $0.63.
Fixed Income
  • The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index edged lower this week.
  • The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was slightly lower at 4.305% and the yield on the 2-year note edged down to 3.79% over the week. 
  • The U.S. Dollar Index appreciated slightly to 99.83 this week. Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank AG have suggested that the dollar could decline again over the year.

HCM-030624-063.GWS

April 18, 2025

A hawkish Fed weighs on market sentiments

In another eventful week, investor sentiment was initially upbeat bolstered by the Trump administration’s selective tariffs exclusions for electronic goods. Subsequently, restrictions on chip exports to China weighed on technology stocks. Later, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s comments on the possible economic slowdown and higher inflation levels led to a market selloff in U.S. markets. Asian and European markets were higher this week. China expressed its readiness to discuss tariff issues with the U.S., provided that the Trump administration acts respectfully, maintains consistency, and addresses China’s concerns. California Governor Gavin Newsom filed a lawsuit on the state’s behalf, to challenge the Trump tariffs, citing the damage to California’s economy. Financial experts are increasingly worried about the potential for an economic downturn, with the Atlanta Federal Reserve estimating a decline in first quarter U.S. GDP. President Xi Jinping embarked on a tour of three Southeast Asian countries to forge stronger trade alliances and improve economic ties.

Global Updates
  • The MSCI All Country World Index edged up this week driven by the uptick in European and Asian markets. The possibility of a China stimulus and China-U.S. trade talks along with the inflow of foreign funds rallied Asian stocks.  
  • The United Kingdom posted a lower inflation of 2.6% in March but a higher inflation is expected in April, driven by higher utility bills and employer tax hikes. 
  • Many countries are expected to open trade negotiations with the U.S. in the coming weeks. The United Kingdom is already in talks with the U.S. to enhance cooperation on A.I. and technology. Japanese trade officials opened talks with the U.S. this week. Korean Finance Minister Choi Sang-mok will also be discussing trade with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent next week. China also expressed its willingness to conditionally negotiate trade with the U.S.
  • Goldman Sachs lowered its 12-month forecast for Europe’s STOXX 600 index to 520 from the previous estimate of 570, warning that U.S. tariffs and a stronger euro could negatively impact corporate earnings. A 5% year-over-year drop in STOXX 600 earnings-per-share is expected for the first quarter.
  • The Bank of Canada held its policy rate in line this week after seven consecutive previous rate cuts. The bank also reiterated its commitment to controlling inflation while enabling economic growth. Canada’s CPI inflation had declined to 2.3% in March, due to lower gasoline prices. 
  • Apple’s iPhone production in India increased by 60% for the fiscal 2025 to $22 billion. One in five Apple iPhones are currently produced in India.
  • The world’s leading supplier of chip manufacturing equipment ASML, has reported a shortfall in the actual net bookings to $4.47 billion for the first quarter. ASML expressed uncertainty for its outlook for 2025 and 2026 due to U.S. tariffs but maintained the annual guidance for 2025.
  • China registered a higher than expected 5.4% growth in its first-quarter GDP despite tariff uncertainty. Analysts expect the tariffs to have a larger impact on economic activity in China by the 2025 end.
  • China placed restrictions on its exports of critical rare earth minerals and magnets to the U.S. and other countries, including Japan and Germany.
  • Oil prices rose this week on the possibility of U.S.-China trade talks and the planned reduction of Iraqi oil supplies in April. 
  • The safe haven demand for precious metals pushed Gold across the $3,300 benchmark. Goldman Sachs has forecasted that global uncertainty will likely push gold prices to $4,500 per ounce by the year end.
U.S. Equity
  • The S&P 500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq indices ended the week lower.  Early in the week, the markets were enthused by the Trump administration’s tariff exclusions for smartphones, computers and some electronic equipment imported from China. President Trump’s suggestion of support for automakers raised investor sentiments. But later in the week Fed Chair Jerome Powell expressed the Fed’s hawkish stance and expectations of an economic slowdown along with higher inflation, which led to a market selloff. President Trump’s restrictions on chip sales to China also impacted technology stocks. 
  • Fed Chair Jerome Powell minimized the likelihood of the Fed stepping in to address market volatility in the near term. He expressed confidence in the market systems and indicated that the market turbulence seemed to be largely due to uncertainty and hedge funds reducing their leverage exposure. 
  • The Atlanta Federal Reserve has estimated a -3.7% decline in U.S. GDP growth for the first quarter.
  • U.S. retail sales surged by 1.4% in March, driven by motor vehicle sales to consumers trying to end run automobile tariffs. 
  • Goldman Sachs stock gained after the company reported $4.74 billion in profits for the first quarter of 2025, driven by trading revenues. The banker also announced a $40 billion stock buyback program.
  • UnitedHealth plummeted following disappointing first-quarter earnings and a reduction in its full-year profit forecast due to higher-than-anticipated costs of the Medicare Advantage program. The company’s first quarter revenue of $109.6 billion came in below the initial estimate of $111.6 billion.  
  • United Airlines reported its best fiscal quarter in five years, posting a 5% jump in its first-quarter revenue to $13.2 billion and a net income of $302 million. 
  • President Donald Trump initiated a probe into the imports of critical minerals by the U.S. to study the over reliance on China and the possible alternatives in the global supply chain. 
  • NVIDIA expects its first fiscal quarter results to be impacted by a $5.5 billion charge due to export restrictions placed on its H20 chips. The U.S. government now requires the company to acquire an export license for selling the chips to China.
Fixed Income
  • The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index rose this week.
  • The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield declined to 4.333% and the yield on the 2-year note fell edged down to 3.80% over the week. 
  • The U.S. Dollar Index depreciated slightly to 99.40 this week. The Swiss Franc, Euro and Japanese Yen remained high against the dollar. The British Pound also neared a six month high this week.

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April 11, 2025

Trump pauses tariffs and markets recover

Investor uncertainty marked the market movements earlier this week, following President Trump’s tariff pronouncements last week. U.S. treasury yields jumped in response to selling pressure in the treasury markets. Subsequently, Trump announced a pause to the reciprocal tariffs on Wednesday. China, Canada, and Mexico tariffs were excluded from the pause. Global markets staged a recovery rally in response, though some uncertainty persisted. The U.S. dollar significantly depreciated this week, even as the Euro, Swiss Franc, and Yen appreciated. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney continues to lead his opponent Pierre Poilievre in opinion polls. Carney imposed a 25% tariff on U.S. cars, and China raised its tariffs to 125%. Taiwan became the first country to initiate trade talks with the U.S. after the tariff reprieve. Iran-U.S. Nuclear program talks will commence on Saturday in Oman. President Trump’s diplomatic envoy Steve Witkoff will be meeting President Putin in Russia.

Global Updates
  • The MSCI All Country World Index recovered from an initial drop in global equity markets after the 90-day pause on the new Trump tariffs drove up investor sentiments. President Trump paused the tariff hikes on most countries while maintaining the base 10% tariff on those countries. Tariffs imposed on China, Canada, and Mexico were continued. The counter-tariffs on the U.S. planned by the European Union (E.U.) were also paused. European and Asian markets registered partial gains following this news. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde has reiterated the bank’s willingness to deploy instruments for market stability
  • The U.K.’s annual GDP growth rate for February beat expectations, coming in at 1.4%.
  • The annual inflation in the EU eased to 2.2% in March due to a decline in energy and services costs.
  • China raised its tariffs on U.S. goods to 125%, escalating from 84% last Friday. The U.S. had raised the levies on Chinese goods to 145% last week. China also filed a supplementary complaint with the World Trade Organization, regarding the Trump tariffs.
  • China property sector behemoth Country Garden has received approval from a major bondholder group for its debt restructuring plan. 
  • Gold price surged past the $3,200 per ounce mark this week, driven by global uncertainties. Mining stocks have also benefited from the safe haven demand for precious metals.
  • Saudi Arabia’s state oil firm Aramco has slashed its official selling price for May to $1.2 per barrel. China has raised its crude purchases for May due to price effects.
  • Taiwan plans to include a $200 billion Natural Gas purchase agreement in its trade talks with the U.S. Taiwan President Lai Ching-te has in principle agreed to a zero tariff regime with the U.S.
  • Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC) reported a larger-than-expected 42% jump in its first quarter revenue to $25.6 billion, despite the market volatility. 
  • India’s Reserve Bank of India lowered its key repo rate by 25 bps to 6% this week to support economic growth and borrowing.
U.S. Equity
  • The S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq indices ended the week higher after a week of significant movements. The markets started the week lower, responding to larger-than-expected reciprocal tariffs announced on April 2 by President Trump. This included a major selloff in U.S. treasuries. On Wednesday, markets recovered after President Trump announced a pause in tariffs on most countries. Some uncertainty continued to pressure equity and bond markets despite the tariffs in limbo, including the drop in the U.S. dollar to 3 year lows. Taiwan became one of the first nations to initiate trade talks with the U.S. following the sweeping tariffs announced by the U.S. last week. 
  • Goldman Sachs lowered its U.S. GDP growth estimate to 1.3% for 2025, citing the economic slowdown expected due to supply chain disruptions, uncertainty and inflation. Goldman analysts also raised the probability of a recession in 2025 by 10 percentage points to 45%. Analysts now expect the Federal Reserve to advance its schedule for rate cuts to June, to counter the ongoing economic slowdown. 
  • Barclays lowered the price target on Charles River Laboratories in light of potential pharmaceutical tariffs.
  • Delta Airlines reported better than expected first-quarter outcomes. Delta registered a higher-than-expected EPS of $0.46 on a $14.04 billion operating revenue. The airline’s CEO Ed Bastian withdrew the full year forecasts issued earlier in the year, citing stalled growth in the sector due to economic uncertainty. 
  • U.S. Steel stock price was down after President Trump reiterated his opposition to a foreign ownership of U.S. Steel. This has jeopardized the takeover bid by Nippon Steel. 
  • Carmax, the retailer of used cars, reported lower than expected fourth quarter outcomes of EPS of $0.58 and $6 billion in operating revenues. Carmax has not issued any long term targets and stepped away from the ones previously issued.
Fixed Income
  • The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index recovered after initially declining this week.
  • The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose sharply to 4.413%, and the yield on the 2-year note rose to 3.810% over the week. 
  • The U.S. Dollar Index sharply depreciated to a three-year low reading of 99.31 this week, even as the Euro, Swiss Franc and the Yen continued to appreciate to six-month highs.

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April 4, 2025

Global markets in turmoil as investors brace for tariff shock

The announcement of sweeping tariffs by President Trump on April 2 plunged the global markets into chaos. Treasury yields also dropped as fixed income asset market activity increased. Analysts now have projected a higher risk of inflation and recession in the current year. In the short-term disruptions in the global supply chains are expected. The downstream effects on households, industries and employment are still being estimated.

A French court convicted French right wing political leader Marine Le Pen for embezzlement and barred her from running for any public office over the next five years. The decision was strongly criticized by world leaders. President Trump has expressed his disappointment with President Putin and President Zelenskyy, following their actions week which could possibly have undermined the ceasefire efforts. Israel continued its operations in Gaza this week.

Global Updates
  • The MSCI All Country World Index plunged this week following the ‘Liberation Day’ tariff declaration by President Trump. Global equity markets have dropped, even as investors estimate the impact these tariffs will have on trade, economic growth, investments and corporate earnings.
  • Canada has imposed a retaliatory 25% tariff on auto imports from the U.S.; despite Canada and Mexico being exempted from U.S. tariffs on April 2.
  • Canada and European countries have expressed their willingness to increase defence spending but not to the levels Trump expects.
  • Canadian Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre has a proposed a tax break for capital gains reinvested in Canadian businesses.
  • Gold price dropped slightly to $3,107 this week due to price taking by sellers, even though precious metals were excluded from the Trump tariffs. The safe haven demand for gold and silver is expected to rise in the coming weeks.
  • China has imposed an additional 34% tariff on U.S. imports following the U.S. raising the cumulative duty on Chinese products to 54%.
  • Oil Prices also dropped sharply this week on the expectation of a global trade war which would hurt the demand for crude oil. The plans of OPEC+ to increase output from April will likely create oversupply in the market.
  • Taiwan has unveiled a $2.67 billion assistance program for companies impacted by the Trump tariffs including its electronics and steel companies.
U.S. Equity
  • The S&P 500, Dow Jones and Nasdaq indices ended the week lower following the sweeping reciprocals country and sector specific tariffs announced on April 2. These trade barriers are reported to be the highest in a century. President Trump exempted semiconductors, lumber, copper, gold, and pharmaceuticals from these tariffs. No new tariffs were imposed on Mexico and Canada too. The tariffs will be rolled out in two stages. In the first phase a 10% baseline tariff will be imposed on April 5. This will be followed by higher tariffs on April 9. President Trump has suggested that the tariffs can be negotiated down by the respective countries.
  • JP Morgan has raised the probability of a recession occurring within this year to 60%, following the tariff announcement on ‘Liberation Day’.
  • Goldman Sachs has lowered its year-end S&P 500 target for the second time this month to 5,700 from the previous estimates of 6,500 and 6,200 considering the fallout from President Trump’s tariff strategy.
  • The JOLTS employment data has indicated that job openings declined to 7.56 million in February. However, the U.S. Labor Department reported a higher-than-expected increase of 228,000 jobs in the non-farm payrolls data for March.
  • Concurrently, the U.S. Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) growth for February came in at 0.4%. The annual core PCE estimate was higher than expected at 2.8% in February.
  • The ISM PMI reading of 49 for March indicated that the U.S. manufacturing sector entered a contractionary phase in March due to a drop in new orders.
  • Tesla has reported its weakest quarterly sales in three years, in the first quarter of 2025. Tesla’s sales dropped by 13% to 336,681 units, due to global competition from BYD, Volkswagen, and BMW.
  • The Trump administration is reportedly nearing a decision on the ownership structure for the acquisition of TikTok before the deadline date on April 5th. If a acquisition deal is not settled by the deadline date, TikTok would have to shut down its U.S. operations.
  • Stocks of computer hardware companies including Dell Technologies, Western Digital and HP have dropped, owing to the expectation of higher costs due to their dependence on global supply chains. Chipmakers like Nvidia, Intel, etc. were similarly affected.
Fixed Income
  • The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index was jumped this week.
  • The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 4.053% and the yield on the 2-year note to 725% over the week.
  • The U.S. Dollar Index sharply depreciated to 102.10 this week while the Euro and Yen appreciated to six-month highs.

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March 28, 2025

Tariffs dominate headlines as the world prepares for a trade war

The drama of increased tariff continued to unfold as the retaliation from other nations weighed on the performance of major markets. The auto tariffs and the tariffs policy announcement scheduled for April 2nd dominated the financial markets’ headlines this week. Asian and European markets were affected the most by the news. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has called for a federal election on April 28. The U.S. bombed Yemen Airport and other strategic targets after Houthi rebels claimed responsibility for a ballistic missile launched on Israel. Israel’s attack on Hamas leadership continued this week. A high-profile U.S. delegation will be visiting Greenland. Ukraine and Russia agreed to a truce on attacks in the Black Sea and on Energy targets. Ukrainian officials have signaled that the mineral deal with the U.S. is yet to be finalized.

Global Updates
  • The MSCI All Country World Index was slightly lower this week. Europe and Asian markets shed initial gains in the week, following the announcement of auto tariffs on Thursday starting next week. Any optimism from the assurances of tariff flexibility by Trump on Friday was given up, after the news of 25% tariffs on all foreign made vehicles from April 2. 
  • German unemployment rose to 6.3% for march due to economic slowdown. 
  • Abott Laboratories was granted the approval for commercial application of its Volt Pulse Field Ablation (PFA) system for heart patients in the European Union. 
  • Asian equity markets declined on the news of tariffs on auto imports starting next week. Japanese and South Korean automakers Toyota, Honda, Subaru, Hyundai, and Kia were impacted the most. Technology stocks also faced selling pressure, tracking an overnight decline in US tech giants. 
  • UBS has received approval from Chinese authorities to fully own its Beijing based joint venture UBS Securities.
  • Ubisoft stock gained after Tencent invested $1.25 billion in the company’s new subsidiary.
  • Hong Kong based CK Hutchison Holdings Ltd. is seeking to spin off a global telecommunications business listed on the London Stock Exchange.  
  • Copper Futures have risen this week due to supply concerns and possible U.S. tariffs on copper imports.
  • A high-powered U.S. delegation including vice-president J.D. Vance, Usha Vance, N.S.A. Michael Waltz and Secretary of Energy Chris Wright will be visiting a military base in Greenland on Friday. The planned visit had to be scaled back following and uproar by politicians from Greenland and Denmark.
U.S. Equity
  • The S&P 500 index, Dow Jones and Nasdaq indices ended the week marginally higher due to a jump in investor sentiments early in the week after President Trump signaled that the reciprocals tariffs scheduled to go into effect on April 2nd could be industry and country specific. 
  • The market slump following the announcement of tariffs on imported automobiles could not offset the gains early in the week. President Trump has warned U.S automakers not to inflate prices following the imposition of auto tariffs on their imported competitors. 
  • Unemployment claims edged lower to 224,000 by 1,000 claims for the week ending March 22.
  • Barclays analysts have lowered their projections for the S&P to 5,900 by the year end, due to tariff uncertainty. 
  • Goldman Sachs analysts have downgraded Supermicro stock from sell to neutral while citing the impact of strong competition in the AI server segment on profitability.
  • Stock Price of Vaccine manufacturers, including Moderna, fell after the U.S governments plans to discontinue funding for the global vaccine partnership ‘Gavi’ were made public. 
  • Discount Retailer Dollar Tree has agreed to a $ 1 billion deal with private equity firms Brigade Capital Management and Macellum Capital Management for the Family Dollar brand. 
  • Stock price of car part providers AutoZone and O’Reilly Automotive have gone up due to the possibility of increased sales of parts for older cars following the sticker price shock of new cars due to tariffs.
  • United Airlines’ Teamsters’ Union has rejected the contract offer from the carrier  for its technicians.
Fixed Income
  • The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index was lower this week.
  • The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.369% and the yield on the 2-year note rose slightly to 3.998% over the week. 
  • The U.S. Dollar Index edged up to 104.42 this week.

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